Liudmila Samsonova vs Jessica PegulaBerlin Round of 16

Berlin · WTA · Round of 16
#41WTA
1775ELO
1699Grass ELO
$722kYTD
$8.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLLLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 16 June 2025
grass
#4WTA
2097ELO
1903Grass ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
Samsonova L.
6-7 7-5 7-6
Pegula J.
Samsonova L.
687772
Pegula J.
7105651

Liudmila Samsonova defeated Jessica Pegula 6-7 7-5 7-6 in the Berlin round of 16 on grass. The upset overturned the form book — Jessica Pegula came in ranked #4, leading the head-to-head 4–1, defending the title. Liudmila Samsonova narrowed the head-to-head to 4–2.

Key context

Head to head

14
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-04BrisbaneQFhardJessica Pegula6-3 7-6(3)
2025-02-17DubaiR32hardJessica Pegula6-0 6-4
2023-08-07MontrealFhardJessica Pegula6-1 6-0
2022-05-09RomeR64clayJessica Pegula4-6 6-3 6-4
2021-06-28WimbledonR64grassLiudmila Samsonova6-4 3-6 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Samsonova L.serving80% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Pegula J.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Samsonova L.

Serve advantage — Pegula J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
50%
Service points won·Even
59%
61%
Return points won·Even
42%
45%
Break points saved·Even
57%
60%
Aces / match·Even
3.4
3.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.5
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (66 vs 96). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
69
96
Break points saved·Even
93
96
Break points won·Slight edge
94
99
Deciding sets·Dominant
61
100
Tiebreaks·Dominant
55
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
3.4Grass Elo 1699
Surface ELO
6.6+205 Grass Elo edge
1.4Overall Elo 1775
ELO gap
8.6Overall Elo 2097
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.4
Surface form
6.6
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.6
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
5.3
Country comfort
Surface transition
3.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
83
72

Samsonova L.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d) · Pegula J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
19°CDrizzle
Wind 21 km/hHumidity 62%