Liudmila Samsonova vs Naomi OsakaBerlin Round of 32

Berlin · WTA · Round of 32
#41WTA
1775ELO
1699Grass ELO
$722kYTD
$8.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLLLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 16 June 2025
grass
#14WTA
1987ELO
1793Grass ELO
$1.1MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWW
Samsonova L.
3-6 7-6 6-4
Osaka N.
Samsonova L.
37762
Osaka N.
66341

Liudmila Samsonova defeated Naomi Osaka 3-6 7-6 6-4 in the Berlin round of 32 on grass. The upset overturned the form book — Naomi Osaka came in ranked #14, leading the head-to-head 3–1, defending last year's round of 32. Liudmila Samsonova narrowed the head-to-head to 3–2.

Key context

Head to head

13
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-07-27MontrealR64hardNaomi Osaka4-6 7-6(6) 6-3
2025-03-18MiamiR64hardNaomi Osaka6-2 6-4
2024-04-22MadridR64clayLiudmila Samsonova6-2 4-6 7-5
2024-03-06Indian WellsR64hardNaomi Osaka7-5 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Samsonova L.serving84% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Osaka N.

Osaka N.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Samsonova L.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
48%
Service points won·Even
59%
62%
Return points won·Even
42%
43%
Break points saved·Even
57%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.5
6.7
Double faults / match·Even
3.4
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (66 vs 51). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
69
91
Break points saved·Even
93
96
Break points won·Even
94
97
Deciding sets·Dominant
61
99
Tiebreaks·Dominant
55
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
5.3Grass Elo 1699
Surface ELO
4.7+94 Grass Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1775
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 1987
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.4
Surface form
4.6
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
8.6
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
5.3
Country comfort
Surface transition
3.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
83
79

Samsonova L.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d) · Osaka N.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
19°CDrizzle
Wind 21 km/hHumidity 62%