Alex Bolt vs Mackenzie McdonaldBirmingham CH Round of 32

Birmingham CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#166ATP
1588ELO
1569Grass ELO
$125kYTD
$2.2MCAREER
33 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLWLWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 2 June 2025
grass
#140ATP
1606ELO
1541Grass ELO
$240kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWLLW
Bolt A.
6-4 7-6
Mcdonald M.
Bolt A.
6772
Mcdonald M.
4630

Alex Bolt defeated Mackenzie Mcdonald 6-4 7-6 in the Birmingham CH round of 32 on grass. The upset overturned the form book — Mackenzie Mcdonald came in ranked #140, leading the head-to-head 2–1. Alex Bolt narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-01-13Australian OpenQ1hardMackenzie Mcdonald6-2 6-2
2021-02-01Murray River OpenR32hardAlex Bolt6-4 6-7(7) 7-5
2018-06-11s HertogenboschR16grassMackenzie Mcdonald6-4 7-5

Serve vs return

This season
Bolt A.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Mcdonald M.

Mcdonald M.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Bolt A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
53%
Service points won·Even
65%
64%
Return points won·Even
37%
38%
Break points saved·Even
65%
61%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.5
4.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (86 vs 91). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
44
56
Break points saved·Even
93
96
Break points won·Dominant
7
66
Deciding sets·Even
46
45
Tiebreaks·Dominant
83
44

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
5.2+28 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.8Grass Elo 1541
4.6Overall Elo 1588
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1606
0.0
H2H
10.0
8.1
Surface form
4.9
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
7.0
3-set count
7.0
3.0
Surface transition
3.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
92

Mcdonald M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast