Lucia Bronzetti vs Naomi Osaka — Madrid Round of 128

Madrid · WTA · Round of 128
Lucia Bronzetti
ITA
Lucia Bronzetti
#125WTA
1622ELO
1605Clay ELO
27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 22 April 2025
clay
Naomi Osaka
JPN
Naomi Osaka
#14WTA
1987ELO
1886Clay ELO
$1.1MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWW
Bronzetti L.
6-4 2-6 6-4
Osaka N.
Bronzetti L.
6262
Osaka N.
4641

Lucia Bronzetti defeated Naomi Osaka 6-4 2-6 6-4 in the Madrid round of 128 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Naomi Osaka came in ranked #14, leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending last year's round of 64. Lucia Bronzetti claimed a first win over Naomi Osaka in three meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Lucia Bronzetti closed it out in three sets, 6–4 2–6 6–4.

Head to head

0–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-09-25BeijingR128hardNaomi Osaka6-3 6-2
2024-05-27Roland GarrosR128clayNaomi Osaka6-1 4-6 7-5
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Bronzetti L.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Osaka N.

Osaka N.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Bronzetti L.

Serve advantage — Osaka N.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Bronzetti L.Osaka N.
1st serve in·Even
60%
58%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
61%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
55%
62%
Return points won·Even
43%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
52%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.3
6.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.6
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (76 vs 51). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Bronzetti L.Osaka N.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
55
91
Break points saved·Clear edge
74
96
Break points won·Clear edge
84
97
Deciding sets·Dominant
60
99
Tiebreaks·Dominant
48
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Bronzetti L.
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Osaka N.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 35 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
1.0Clay Elo 1605
Surface ELO
9.0+282 Clay Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1622
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 1987
0.0
H2H
10.0
4.8
Surface form
4.7
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
9.2
Minutes 14d
9.0
Prev. match
Surface transition
6.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Bronzetti L.Osaka N.
Freshness·Clear edge
100
79

Bronzetti L.: 16 days rest · Osaka N.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
14°CMainly clear
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 74%

Draw

Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Gauff C.[4]
6-37-63
Semi-finals
Gauff C.[4]
Swiatek I.[2]
6-16-1
Sabalenka A.[1]
Svitolina E.[17]
6-37-5
Quarter-finals
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostyuk M.[24]
7-647-67
Svitolina E.[17]
Uchijima M.
6-26-1
Swiatek I.[2]
Keys M.[5]
0-66-36-2
Gauff C.[4]
Andreeva M.[7]
7-56-1
R16
Uchijima M.
Alexandrova E.[21]
6-47-65
Swiatek I.[2]
Shnaider D.[13]
6-06-736-4
Andreeva M.[7]
Starodubtseva Y.
6-16-4
Svitolina E.[17]
Sakkari M.
6-36-4
Sabalenka A.[1]
Stearns P.
6-26-4
Kostyuk M.[24]
Potapova A.
6-36-2
Gauff C.[4]
Bencic B.
6-46-2
Keys M.[5]
Vekic D.[19]
6-26-3
R32
Shnaider D.[13]
Sevastova A.
6-06-0
Svitolina E.[17]
Rybakina E.[10]
6-36-4
Vekic D.[19]
Navarro E.[11]
4-66-36-2
Starodubtseva Y.
Samsonova L.[18]
2-67-626-0
Andreeva M.[7]
Frech M.[27]
7-56-3
Stearns P.
Masarova R.
6-26-0
Kostyuk M.[24]
Kudermetova V.
6-04-66-4
Gauff C.[4]
Li A.
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[21]
Kasatkina D.[14]
6-37-63
Swiatek I.[2]
Noskova L.[31]
6-46-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Mertens E.[28]
3-66-26-1
Keys M.[5]
Kalinskaya A.[30]
7-57-63
Bencic B.
Haddad Maia B.[16]
6-34-67-62
Potapova A.
Kenin S.[32]
3-66-47-66
Uchijima M.
Pegula J.[3]
6-36-2
Sakkari M.
Paolini J.[6]
6-26-1
R64
Gauff C.[4]
Yastremska D.
0-66-27-5
Sabalenka A.[1]
Blinkova A.
6-36-4
Kenin S.[32]
Sun L.
6-36-2
Shnaider D.[13]
Volynets K.
6-16-2
Masarova R.
Putintseva Y.[22]
6-36-3
Swiatek I.[2]
Eala A.
4-66-46-2
Uchijima M.
Jabeur O.[26]
4-66-36-4
Vekic D.[19]
Baptiste H.
6-46-3
Haddad Maia B.[16]
Pera B.
2-66-36-1
Sevastova A.
Ostapenko J.[23]
7-626-2
Samsonova L.[18]
Dolehide C.
6-46-4
Kasatkina D.[14]
Parks A.
6-27-5
Mertens E.[28]
Osorio C.
6-36-3
Sakkari M.
Linette M.[29]
7-656-3
Starodubtseva Y.
Cocciaretto E.
7-656-4
Kudermetova V.
Bucsa C.
4-67-617-5
Rybakina E.[10]
Andreescu B.
6-36-2
Pegula J.[3]
Lys E.
6-26-2
Bencic B.
Tauson C.[20]
7-57-5
Navarro E.[11]
Joint M.
7-57-5
Frech M.[27]
Bouzas Maneiro J.
5-77-626-4
Andreeva M.[7]
Bouzkova M.
6-36-4
Keys M.[5]
Bronzetti L.
6-46-3
Kalinskaya A.[30]
Parry D.
7-646-4
Noskova L.[31]
Carle M.
7-56-1
Stearns P.
Anisimova A.[15]
6-22-67-5
Kostyuk M.[24]
Raducanu E.
6-42-66-2
Potapova A.
Zheng Q.[8]
6-46-4
Alexandrova E.[21]
Danilovic O.
6-36-4
Svitolina E.[17]
Kartal S.
6-36-1
Paolini J.[6]
Boulter K.
6-16-2
Li A.
Fernandez L.[25]
6-43-66-4
R128
Li A.
Sasnovich A.
6-36-2
Sakkari M.
Wang X.
6-47-67
Parks A.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-36-3
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Sherif M.
6-36-1
Carle M.
Sramkova R.
6-36-2
Osorio C.
Arango E.
6-36-3
Pera B.
Fett J.
6-46-3
Bronzetti L.
Osaka N.
6-42-66-4
Potapova A.
Krueger A.
6-776-46-2
Raducanu E.
Lamens S.
7-646-4
Eala A.
Tomova V.
6-36-2
Starodubtseva Y.
Fruhvirtova L.
6-26-2
Baptiste H.
Cirstea S.
6-25-77-64
Kudermetova V.
Kudermetova P.
6-26-2
Yastremska D.
Jones F.
7-654-66-3
Masarova R.
Tomljanovic A.
6-31-67-5
Parry D.
Begu I.
6-36-4
Bencic B.
Sonmez Z.
6-06-2
Bouzkova M.
Zarazua R.
6-24-66-1
Dolehide C.
Avanesyan E.
6-46-4
Lys E.
Kostovic T.
6-26-2
Joint M.
Martinez Cirez C.
6-22-66-4
Boulter K.
Siniakova K.
4-66-26-1
Sun L.
Gracheva V.
3-66-16-4
Kartal S.
Cristian J.
6-27-5
Volynets K.
Kvitova P.
6-46-0
Stearns P.
Birrell K.
5-76-36-4
Blinkova A.
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Uchijima M.
Montgomery R.
1-66-46-3
Andreescu B.
Kessler M.
6-26-4
Danilovic O.
Azarenka V.
6-46-2
Sevastova A.
Pavlyuchenkova A.
6-47-5