Danielle Collins vs Jelena Ostapenko — Charleston Round of 16

Charleston · WTA · Round of 16
Danielle Collins
USA7
Danielle Collins
#701WTA
1844ELO
1809Clay ELO
32 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLLWWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 31 March 2025
clay
Jelena Ostapenko
LAT11
Jelena Ostapenko
#29WTA
1855ELO
1808Clay ELO
$1.2MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 177 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWL
Collins D.
7-5 6-3
Ostapenko J.
Collins D.
762
Ostapenko J.
530

Danielle Collins defeated Jelena Ostapenko 7-5 6-3 in the Charleston round of 16 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Jelena Ostapenko came in ranked #29, leading the head-to-head 2–1. Danielle Collins narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

1–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-09-11San DiegoR16hardDanielle Collins2-6 6-3 6-4
2023-02-06Abu DhabiR32hardJelena Ostapenko7-5 1-6 7-5
2018-03-19MiamiSFhardJelena Ostapenko7-6(1) 6-3
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Collins D.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Ostapenko J.

Ostapenko J.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Collins D.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Collins D.Ostapenko J.
1st serve in·Even
57%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
65%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
42%
Service points won·Even
58%
55%
Return points won·Even
42%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
50%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.4
3.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
5.4
5.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 56). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Collins D.Ostapenko J.
Clutch Rating·Even
88
88
Break points saved·Clear edge
95
79
Break points won·Even
99
100
Deciding sets·Slight edge
88
96
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
96
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Collins D.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Ostapenko J.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.2+0 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.8Clay Elo 1808
5.2Overall Elo 1844
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 1855
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.6
Surface form
5.7
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
6.8
Minutes 14d
8.9
7.0
3-set count
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
7.7
Country comfort
5.2
6.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Collins D.Ostapenko J.
Freshness·
—
93

Ostapenko J.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
24°CDrizzle
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 68%

Draw

Final
Pegula J.[1]
Kenin S.
6-37-5
Semi-finals
Kenin S.
Anisimova A.[8]
5-2
Pegula J.[1]
Alexandrova E.[9]
6-22-67-5
Quarter-finals
Pegula J.[1]
Collins D.[7]
1-66-36-0
Kenin S.
Kalinskaya A.[14]
6-46-3
Alexandrova E.[9]
Zheng Q.[3]
6-16-4
Anisimova A.[8]
Navarro E.[4]
7-57-61
R16
Kenin S.
Kasatkina D.[5]
6-37-67
Kalinskaya A.[14]
Keys M.[2]
6-26-4
Navarro E.[4]
Krueger A.[15]
4-66-46-2
Anisimova A.[8]
Putintseva Y.[10]
6-46-4
Collins D.[7]
Ostapenko J.[11]
7-56-3
Pegula J.[1]
Tomljanovic A.
6-36-2
Alexandrova E.[9]
Shnaider D.[6]
6-26-1
Zheng Q.[3]
Mertens E.[13]
6-33-66-3
R32
Zheng Q.[3]
Sakkari M.
6-46-1
Krueger A.[15]
Volynets K.
6-37-64
Navarro E.[4]
Baptiste H.
6-46-3
Kasatkina D.[5]
Davis L.
6-16-1
Kenin S.
Bencic B.[17]
6-06-3
Tomljanovic A.
Stearns P.[16]
6-16-4
Collins D.[7]
Montgomery R.
6-36-1
Shnaider D.[6]
Kudermetova P.
6-36-2
Anisimova A.[8]
Kudermetova V.
6-26-2
Mertens E.[13]
Gracheva V.
6-37-5
Pegula J.[1]
Shymanovich I.
6-06-3
Ostapenko J.[11]
Chirico L.
7-56-2
Alexandrova E.[9]
Li A.
6-36-0
Putintseva Y.[10]
Zhang S.
7-656-1
Kalinskaya A.[14]
Mcnally C.
6-16-4
Keys M.[2]
Dolehide C.
6-37-64
R64
Li A.
Blinkova A.
6-46-3
Kudermetova V.
Mateas M.
6-06-2
Chirico L.
Andreeva E.
6-43-66-4
Montgomery R.
Tomova V.
6-16-3
Sakkari M.
Stakusic M.
6-36-2
Gracheva V.
Dart H.
6-13-66-1
Mcnally C.
Kalinina A.
4-66-16-4
Dolehide C.
Cocciaretto E.
6-46-1
Baptiste H.
Gadecki O.
6-26-4
Zhang S.
Bronzetti L.
7-55-76-4
Shymanovich I.
Watson H.
7-686-4
Kudermetova P.
Begu I.
6-36-4
Tomljanovic A.
Okamura K.
3-66-16-2
Volynets K.
Sebov K.
6-06-0
Davis L.
Loeb J.
3-66-16-3
Kenin S.
Pera B.
6-36-4