Alexander Bublik vs Sebastian Baez — Miami Masters Round of 128

Miami Masters · ATP · Round of 128
Alexander Bublik
KAZ
Alexander Bublik
#11ATP
1889ELO
1837Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 19 March 2025
hard
Sebastian Baez
ARG
Sebastian Baez
#57ATP
1759ELO
1709Hard ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
Bublik A.
6-3 6-4
Baez S.
Bublik A.
662
Baez S.
340

Alexander Bublik defeated Sebastian Baez 6-3 6-4 in the Miami Masters round of 128 on hard. The result followed the form book — Alexander Bublik came in ranked #11, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 64. Alexander Bublik extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-08Rome MastersR64clayAlexander Bublik1-6 2-6
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Bublik A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Baez S.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Bublik A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Bublik A.Baez S.
65
Serve
5
25
Return
63

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Bublik A.Baez S.
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
72%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
77%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
67%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
10.9
1.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.5
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (91 vs 79). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Bublik A.Baez S.
Clutch Rating·Even
88
87
Break points saved·Even
99
96
Break points won·Clear edge
67
86
Deciding sets·Slight edge
99
88
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
96
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Bublik A.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Baez S.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.9+128 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.1Hard Elo 1709
7.2Overall Elo 1889
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1759
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.6
Surface form
0.0
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3.9
Minutes 14d
8.8
0.0
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
4.6
Country comfort
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Bublik A.Baez S.
Freshness·Dominant
70
95

Bublik A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d) · Baez S.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 48%
Final
Mensik J.
Djokovic N.[4]
7-647-64
Semi-finals
Mensik J.
Fritz T.[3]
7-644-67-64
Djokovic N.[4]
Dimitrov G.[14]
6-26-3
Quarter-finals
Djokovic N.[4]
Korda S.[24]
6-37-64
Dimitrov G.[14]
Cerundolo F.[23]
6-766-47-63
Mensik J.
Fils A.[17]
7-656-1
Fritz T.[3]
Berrettini M.[29]
7-56-777-5
R16
Mensik J.
Machac T.[20]
W/O
Fils A.[17]
Zverev A.[1]
3-66-36-4
Berrettini M.[29]
De Minaur A.[10]
6-37-67
Dimitrov G.[14]
Nakashima B.[31]
6-47-5
Cerundolo F.[23]
Ruud C.[5]
6-46-2
Djokovic N.[4]
Musetti L.[15]
6-26-2
Korda S.[24]
Monfils G.
6-42-66-4
Fritz T.[3]
Walton A.
6-37-5
R32
Zverev A.[1]
Thompson J.
7-56-4
Machac T.[20]
Opelka R.
7-616-3
Berrettini M.[29]
Bergs Z.
6-46-4
Fritz T.[3]
Shapovalov D.[27]
7-56-3
Monfils G.
Munar J.
7-55-77-61
De Minaur A.[10]
Fonseca J.
5-77-56-3
Korda S.[24]
Tsitsipas S.[9]
7-646-3
Djokovic N.[4]
Ugo Carabelli C.
6-17-61
Fils A.[17]
Tiafoe F.[16]
7-6115-76-2
Walton A.
Wong C.
7-664-66-4
Musetti L.[15]
Auger Aliassime F.[18]
4-66-26-3
Nakashima B.[31]
Goffin D.
6-36-756-3
Dimitrov G.[14]
Khachanov K.[22]
6-736-47-5
Cerundolo F.[23]
Paul T.[12]
6-27-64
Ruud C.[5]
Tabilo A.[30]
6-47-64
Mensik J.
Safiullin R.
6-46-4
R64
Thompson J.
Mpetshi Perricard G.[28]
7-647-61
Musetti L.[15]
Halys Q.
3-67-647-5
Fils A.[17]
Diallo G.
6-42-3
Wong C.
Shelton B.[13]
7-632-67-65
Mensik J.
Draper J.[6]
7-627-63
Walton A.
Darderi L.
6-46-4
Monfils G.
Lehecka J.[26]
6-13-67-68
Korda S.[24]
Spizzirri E.
6-46-2
Zverev A.[1]
Fearnley J.
6-26-4
Dimitrov G.[14]
Cina F.
6-16-4
Tiafoe F.[16]
Davidovich Fokina A.
7-57-65
Ugo Carabelli C.
Michelsen A.[32]
6-737-56-3
Shapovalov D.[27]
Tirante T.
6-36-717-63
Fritz T.[3]
Sonego L.
7-626-3
Opelka R.
Rune H.[11]
4-66-37-65
Machac T.[20]
Arnaldi M.
6-21-66-3
Berrettini M.[29]
Gaston H.
4-66-36-3
Auger Aliassime F.[18]
Schoolkate T.
6-46-4
Fonseca J.
Humbert U.[19]
6-46-3
Munar J.
Medvedev D.[7]
6-26-3
Djokovic N.[4]
Hijikata R.
6-07-61
Bergs Z.
Rublev A.[8]
7-56-4
Tabilo A.[30]
Moutet C.
5-76-37-5
Safiullin R.
Popyrin A.[25]
6-746-37-5
Ruud C.[5]
Kecmanovic M.
3-66-46-4
Tsitsipas S.[9]
Tseng C.
4-67-56-3
Cerundolo F.[23]
Muller A.
6-16-2
Paul T.[12]
Bublik A.
5-77-56-4
Khachanov K.[22]
Kyrgios N.
7-636-0
Goffin D.
Alcaraz C.[2]
5-76-46-3
Nakashima B.[31]
Carballes Baena R.
6-44-66-3
De Minaur A.[10]
Yunchaokete B.
6-46-4
R128
Moutet C.
Blockx A.
7-656-4
Goffin D.
Vukic A.
2-66-46-2
Bergs Z.
Borges N.
7-627-5
Gaston H.
Nishioka Y.
6-43-1
Cina F.
Comesana F.
7-647-62
Thompson J.
Giron M.
3-66-47-5
Hijikata R.
Medjedovic H.
7-53-67-5
Fearnley J.
Bonzi B.
7-662-66-4
Mensik J.
Bautista Agut R.
6-43-66-1
Fonseca J.
Tien L.
6-716-36-4
Yunchaokete B.
Norrie C.
6-46-2
Arnaldi M.
Wu Y.
7-634-66-3
Davidovich Fokina A.
Struff J.
7-636-3
Ugo Carabelli C.
Holt B.
2-67-656-4
Schoolkate T.
Quinn E.
6-06-2
Tseng C.
Bellucci M.
7-656-2
Halys Q.
Seyboth Wild T.
6-36-4
Kecmanovic M.
Kovacevic A.
6-46-4
Safiullin R.
Brooksby J.
6-33-66-3
Munar J.
Rinderknech A.
6-37-65
Sonego L.
Navone M.
7-57-5
Darderi L.
Martinez P.
6-46-1
Muller A.
Sakamoto R.
6-46-4
Wong C.
Altmaier D.
6-46-3
Spizzirri E.
Harris B.
7-623-66-2
Tirante T.
Cobolli F.
6-13-66-3
Monfils G.
Marozsan F.
6-33-66-4
Bublik A.
Baez S.
6-36-4
Kyrgios N.
Mcdonald M.
3-66-36-4
Carballes Baena R.
Oconnell C.
6-33-67-65
Diallo G.
Etcheverry T.
6-36-0
Opelka R.
Eubanks C.
6-37-64