Tommy Paul vs Cameron NorrieIndian Wells Masters Round of 32

Indian Wells Masters · ATP · Round of 32
#25ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 5 March 2025
hard
#29ATP
1829ELO
1789Hard ELO
$963kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLLWWLW
Paul T.
6-3 7-5
Norrie C.
Paul T.
672
Norrie C.
350

Tommy Paul defeated Cameron Norrie 6-3 7-5 in the Indian Wells Masters round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Tommy Paul came in ranked #25, defending last year's semi-final. Tommy Paul narrowed the head-to-head to 3–2.

Key context

  • Match story: Tommy Paul closed it out in two sets, 6–3 7–5.

Head to head

13
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-06-27WimbledonR16grassCameron Norrie6-4 7-5 6-4
2022-02-14Delray BeachSFhardCameron Norrie6-3 6-3
2021-10-04Indian Wells MastersR16hardCameron Norrie6-4 4-6 6-2
2021-02-01Murray River OpenR64hardTommy Paul4-6 7-6(2) 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Paul T.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Norrie C.

Norrie C.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Serve advantage — Paul T.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Paul T.Norrie C.
71
Serve
45
54
Return
34

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
52%
Service points won·Even
66%
64%
Return points won·Even
39%
36%
Break points saved·Even
63%
66%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.4
5.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (66 vs 84). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
93
89
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Even
87
83
Deciding sets·Even
98
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
96
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.7+92 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.3Hard Elo 1789
5.7Overall Elo 1949
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1829
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.5
Surface form
4.0
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
9.3
Minutes 14d
8.9
Prev. match
8.0
7.4
Country comfort
5.7
Context
8.5
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
84
93

Paul T.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Norrie C.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
21°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 27%