Cameron Norrie vs Tommy PaulIndian Wells Masters Round of 16

Indian Wells Masters · ATP · Round of 16
#38ATP
1829ELO
1789Hard ELO
$963kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLLWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 4 October 2021
hard
#24ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Norrie C.
6-4 4-6 6-2
Paul T.
Norrie C.
6462
Paul T.
4621

Cameron Norrie defeated Tommy Paul 6-4 4-6 6-2 in the Indian Wells Masters round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Tommy Paul came in ranked #24, but Cameron Norrie had arrived on a 4-match winning run. Cameron Norrie extended the head-to-head to 3–2.

Key context

  • Match story: Cameron Norrie closed it out in three sets, 6–4 4–6 6–2.

Head to head

22
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-05Indian Wells MastersR32hardTommy Paul6-3 7-5
2022-06-27WimbledonR16grassCameron Norrie6-4 7-5 6-4
2022-02-14Delray BeachSFhardCameron Norrie6-3 6-3
2021-02-01Murray River OpenR64hardTommy Paul4-6 7-6(2) 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Norrie C.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Norrie C.

Serve advantage — Paul T.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Norrie C.Paul T.
45
Serve
71
34
Return
54

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
54%
Service points won·Even
64%
65%
Return points won·Even
37%
39%
Break points saved·Even
65%
64%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.2
6.1
Double faults / match·Even
2.3
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
89
93
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Even
83
87
Deciding sets·Even
98
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
89
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.3Hard Elo 1789
Surface ELO
5.7+92 Hard Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1829
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1949
0.0
H2H
10.0
6.4
Surface form
5.8
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
5.4
Minutes 14d
8.7
7.0
3-set count
7.0
7.0
Prev. match
7.0
5.1
Country comfort
7.1
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
95
88

Norrie C.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Paul T.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
35°COvercast
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 12%