Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex De Minaur — Indian Wells Masters Round of 16

Indian Wells Masters · ATP · Round of 16
Francisco Cerundolo
ARG25
Francisco Cerundolo
#21ATP
1931ELO
1880Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$11MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 5 March 2025
hard
Alex De Minaur
AUS9
Alex De Minaur
#6ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Cerundolo F.
7-5 6-3
De Minaur A.
Cerundolo F.
762
De Minaur A.
530

Francisco Cerundolo defeated Alex De Minaur 7-5 6-3 in the Indian Wells Masters round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alex De Minaur came in ranked #6, leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending last year's round of 16. Francisco Cerundolo claimed a first win over Alex De Minaur in three meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

0–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-18HamburgR32clayAlex De Minaur6-3 4-6 3-6
2025-01-13Australian OpenR32hardAlex De Minaur5-7 7-6(3) 6-3 6-3
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Cerundolo F.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

De Minaur A.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Cerundolo F.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Cerundolo F.De Minaur A.
13
Serve
48
67
Return
80

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Cerundolo F.De Minaur A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
52%
57%
Service points won·Even
63%
66%
Return points won·Even
41%
40%
Break points saved·Even
63%
65%
Aces / match·Even
3.5
4.0
Double faults / match·Even
2.6
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (87 vs 96). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Cerundolo F.De Minaur A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
88
95
Break points saved·Even
98
99
Break points won·Slight edge
86
97
Deciding sets·Even
94
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Cerundolo F.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
De Minaur A.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.0Hard Elo 1880
Surface ELO
6.0+55 Hard Elo edge
4.1Overall Elo 1931
ELO gap
5.9Overall Elo 1961
0.0
H2H
10.0
6.2
Surface form
6.2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
5.6
Minutes 14d
8.6
0.0
3-set count
7.0
7.0
Prev. match
7.0
5.3
Country comfort
5.2
6.0
Surface transition
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Cerundolo F.De Minaur A.
Freshness·Clear edge
97
73

Cerundolo F.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d) · De Minaur A.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 72 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
21°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 27%
Final
Draper J.[13]
Rune H.[12]
6-26-2
Semi-finals
Rune H.[12]
Medvedev D.[5]
7-56-4
Draper J.[13]
Alcaraz C.[2]
6-10-66-4
Quarter-finals
Rune H.[12]
Griekspoor T.
5-76-06-3
Medvedev D.[5]
Fils A.[20]
6-42-67-67
Draper J.[13]
Shelton B.[11]
6-47-5
Alcaraz C.[2]
Cerundolo F.[25]
6-37-64
R16
Shelton B.[11]
Nakashima B.[32]
7-666-1
Medvedev D.[5]
Paul T.[10]
6-46-0
Griekspoor T.
Watanuki Y.
7-646-1
Cerundolo F.[25]
De Minaur A.[9]
7-56-3
Rune H.[12]
Tsitsipas S.[8]
6-46-4
Fils A.[20]
Giron M.
6-22-66-3
Alcaraz C.[2]
Dimitrov G.[14]
6-16-1
Draper J.[13]
Fritz T.[3]
7-56-4
R32
De Minaur A.[9]
Hurkacz H.[21]
6-46-0
Giron M.
Popyrin A.[26]
5-76-36-3
Watanuki Y.
Tiafoe F.[16]
6-47-66
Griekspoor T.
Mpetshi Perricard G.[29]
7-636-3
Medvedev D.[5]
Michelsen A.[31]
2-0
Nakashima B.[32]
Arnaldi M.
6-26-4
Paul T.[10]
Norrie C.
6-37-5
Fritz T.[3]
Tabilo A.[30]
4-66-36-1
Tsitsipas S.[8]
Berrettini M.[28]
6-36-3
Fils A.[20]
Musetti L.[15]
3-67-646-3
Rune H.[12]
Humbert U.[18]
5-76-47-5
Cerundolo F.[25]
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-36-4
Alcaraz C.[2]
Shapovalov D.[27]
6-26-4
Dimitrov G.[14]
Monfils G.
7-644-67-62
Shelton B.[11]
Khachanov K.[22]
6-37-5
Draper J.[13]
Brooksby J.
7-56-4
R64
Watanuki Y.
Machac T.[19]
4-64-2
Mpetshi Perricard G.[29]
Marozsan F.
6-40-0
Tiafoe F.[16]
Dzumhur D.
7-647-67
Monfils G.
Korda S.[24]
7-627-64
Berrettini M.[28]
Oconnell C.
6-27-62
Michelsen A.[31]
Smith C.
6-36-4
Hurkacz H.[21]
Gaston H.
7-56-3
Tabilo A.[30]
Lajovic D.
6-37-5
Rune H.[12]
Moutet C.
6-26-4
Paul T.[10]
Boyer T.
6-36-1
Nakashima B.[32]
Hijikata R.
7-56-1
Fritz T.[3]
Gigante M.
6-37-5
Griekspoor T.
Zverev A.[1]
4-67-657-64
Van De Zandschulp B.
Djokovic N.[6]
6-23-66-1
Musetti L.[15]
Safiullin R.
7-55-76-2
Popyrin A.[26]
Bergs Z.
7-647-5
Giron M.
Ruud C.[4]
7-643-66-2
De Minaur A.[9]
Goffin D.
6-26-2
Humbert U.[18]
Nishikori K.
6-46-3
Brooksby J.
Auger Aliassime F.[17]
6-46-2
Medvedev D.[5]
Yunchaokete B.
6-26-2
Dimitrov G.[14]
Borges N.
6-36-4
Alcaraz C.[2]
Halys Q.
6-46-2
Shapovalov D.[27]
Walton A.
6-36-2
Cerundolo F.[25]
Mcdonald M.
4-67-636-1
Draper J.[13]
Fonseca J.
6-46-0
Shelton B.[11]
Navone M.
6-36-2
Khachanov K.[22]
Mensik J.
3-66-06-3
Arnaldi M.
Rublev A.[7]
6-47-5
Norrie C.
Lehecka J.[23]
3-66-47-5
Fils A.[20]
Diallo G.
6-26-2
Tsitsipas S.[8]
Seyboth Wild T.
6-26-4
R128
Halys Q.
Carreno Busta P.
6-36-4
Walton A.
Zeppieri G.
7-56-1
Monfils G.
Struff J.
6-46-4
Borges N.
Rinderknech A.
6-15-76-2
Goffin D.
Sonego L.
6-47-5
Gaston H.
Darderi L.
6-36-3
Van De Zandschulp B.
Kyrgios N.
7-673-0
Lajovic D.
Tu L.
6-26-0
Brooksby J.
Bonzi B.
1-67-57-5
Fonseca J.
Fearnley J.
6-21-66-3
Navone M.
Tien L.
7-56-4
Mensik J.
Etcheverry T.
6-47-66
Hijikata R.
Shevchenko A.
6-16-3
Arnaldi M.
Kovacevic A.
6-35-76-4
Mcdonald M.
Davidovich Fokina A.
2-66-36-2
Boyer T.
Vukic A.
4-66-27-64
Gigante M.
Baez S.
3-66-16-4
Norrie C.
Nardi L.
6-06-3
Giron M.
Basilashvili N.
7-57-63
Bergs Z.
Quinn E.
7-626-3
Moutet C.
Thompson J.
6-44-66-3
Watanuki Y.
Bublik A.
6-33-66-3
Dzumhur D.
Bautista Agut R.
6-41-67-64
Oconnell C.
Carballes Baena R.
6-30-66-1
Marozsan F.
Martinez P.
6-36-2
Yunchaokete B.
Basavareddy N.
7-56-4
Smith C.
Cobolli F.
3-66-26-2
Safiullin R.
Opelka R.
7-56-4
Diallo G.
Zhang Z.
2-66-27-67
Seyboth Wild T.
Muller A.
4-67-57-66
Nishikori K.
Munar J.
6-25-77-63
Griekspoor T.
Kecmanovic M.
6-756-46-3