Marin Cilic vs Alex De MinaurDubai Round of 32

Dubai · ATP · Round of 32
#62ATP
1800ELO
1762Hard ELO
$776kYTD
$33MCAREER
37 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLLLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 24 February 2025
hard
#6ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Cilic M.
6-2 3-6 6-3
De Minaur A.
Cilic M.
6362
De Minaur A.
2631

Marin Cilic defeated Alex De Minaur 6-2 3-6 6-3 in the Dubai round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alex De Minaur came in ranked #6. Marin Cilic extended the head-to-head to 3–2.

Key context

  • Match story: Marin Cilic closed it out in three sets, 6–2 3–6 6–3.

Head to head

22
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-11-25Davis Cup Finals SF: AUS vs CRORRhardAlex De Minaur6-2 6-2
2021-11-25Davis Cup Finals RR: CRO vs AUSRRhardMarin Cilic6-1 5-7 6-4
2021-06-14Queen's ClubQFgrassAlex De Minaur3-6 6-3 6-4
2018-08-27US OpenR32hardMarin Cilic4-6 3-6 6-3 6-4 7-5

Serve vs return

This season
Cilic M.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

De Minaur A.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Cilic M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Cilic M.De Minaur A.
57
Serve
48
10
Return
80

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
56%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
78%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
52%
57%
Service points won·Even
67%
66%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
9.3
4.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.8
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (64 vs 96). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
76
95
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Dominant
41
97
Deciding sets·Even
94
97
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
87
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
7.9
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.8Hard Elo 1762
Surface ELO
7.2+174 Hard Elo edge
2.9Overall Elo 1800
ELO gap
7.1Overall Elo 1961
0.0
H2H
10.0
3.2
Surface form
7.0
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Minutes 14d
6.2
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
97
73

Cilic M.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · De Minaur A.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 72 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°COvercast
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 63%