Clara Tauson vs Aryna Sabalenka — Dubai Round of 16

Dubai · WTA · Round of 16
Clara Tauson
DEN
Clara Tauson
#25WTA
1802ELO
1775Hard ELO
$792kYTD
$5.2MCAREER
23 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLLLLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 17 February 2025
hard
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR1
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Tauson C.
6-3 6-2
Sabalenka A.
Tauson C.
662
Sabalenka A.
320

Clara Tauson defeated Aryna Sabalenka 6-3 6-2 in the Dubai round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 32. Clara Tauson claimed a first win over Aryna Sabalenka in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-01-13Australian OpenR32hardAryna Sabalenka7-6(5) 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Tauson C.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Sabalenka A.serving85% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Tauson C.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Tauson C.Sabalenka A.
56
Serve
96
39
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Tauson C.Sabalenka A.
1st serve in·Even
60%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
52%
Service points won·Even
60%
63%
Return points won·Even
42%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.0
4.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.6
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (65 vs 90). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Tauson C.Sabalenka A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
73
98
Break points saved·Slight edge
93
98
Break points won·Slight edge
93
100
Deciding sets·Dominant
57
97
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
80
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Tauson C.
3.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Sabalenka A.
8.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.0Hard Elo 1775
Surface ELO
10.0+426 Hard Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1802
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 2220
0.0
H2H
10.0
6.2
Surface form
7.7
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
8.4
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
6.0
Country comfort
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Tauson C.Sabalenka A.
Freshness·Clear edge
98
86

Tauson C.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Sabalenka A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
27°CClear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 45%

Draw

Final
Andreeva M.[12]
Tauson C.
7-616-1
Semi-finals
Tauson C.
Muchova K.[14]
6-46-746-3
Andreeva M.[12]
Rybakina E.[6]
6-44-66-3
Quarter-finals
Muchova K.[14]
Cirstea S.
6-27-5
Rybakina E.[6]
Kenin S.
6-27-62
Andreeva M.[12]
Swiatek I.[2]
6-36-3
Tauson C.
Noskova L.
7-646-4
R16
Andreeva M.[12]
Stearns P.
6-16-1
Tauson C.
Sabalenka A.[1]
6-36-2
Rybakina E.[6]
Badosa P.[9]
4-67-687-62
Muchova K.[14]
Kessler M.
6-31-67-65
Cirstea S.
Navarro E.[8]
7-653-67-5
Noskova L.
Pegula J.[5]
6-37-68
Kenin S.
Paolini J.[4]
6-46-0
Swiatek I.[2]
Yastremska D.
7-56-0
R32
Stearns P.
Zheng Q.[7]
3-66-46-4
Kenin S.
Kostyuk M.
5-77-677-65
Rybakina E.[6]
Uchijima M.
6-36-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kudermetova V.
6-36-4
Pegula J.[5]
Samsonova L.
6-06-4
Andreeva M.[12]
Vondrousova M.
7-56-0
Navarro E.[8]
Bencic B.
7-662-66-3
Cirstea S.
Parks A.
3-66-46-1
Noskova L.
Shnaider D.[11]
7-684-66-3
Badosa P.[9]
Mertens E.
6-26-1
Paolini J.[4]
Lys E.
6-27-5
Tauson C.
Svitolina E.
7-653-67-64
Muchova K.[14]
Raducanu E.
7-666-4
Swiatek I.[2]
Azarenka V.
6-06-2
Yastremska D.
Potapova A.
6-26-3
Kessler M.
Gauff C.[3]
6-47-5
R64
Shnaider D.[11]
Frech M.
6-26-2
Raducanu E.
Sakkari M.
6-46-2
Mertens E.
Fernandez L.
6-26-2
Andreeva M.[12]
Avanesyan E.
6-26-1
Svitolina E.
Kalinskaya A.[15]
6-16-2
Tauson C.
Sramkova R.
7-676-0
Noskova L.
Putintseva Y.
6-27-65
Azarenka V.
Kalinina A.
2-67-646-4
Badosa P.[9]
Sun L.
6-36-4
Bencic B.
Ito A.
6-06-2
Cirstea S.
Kasatkina D.[10]
6-16-4
Kudermetova V.
Alexandrova E.
3-66-46-3
Samsonova L.
Pavlyuchenkova A.
6-26-2
Uchijima M.
Ostapenko J.
6-36-3
Muchova K.[14]
Lamens S.
6-26-2
Potapova A.
Haddad Maia B.[13]
6-36-0
Yastremska D.
Linette M.
6-37-5
Kessler M.
Anisimova A.
6-26-3
Stearns P.
Jabeur O.
7-666-4
Lys E.
Begu I.
5-77-56-3
Kostyuk M.
Siniakova K.
6-36-4
Parks A.
Wang X.
6-36-3
Vondrousova M.
Garcia C.
6-26-2
Kenin S.
Vekic D.[16]
7-56-3