Sofia Kenin vs Jasmine PaoliniDubai Round of 16

Dubai · WTA · Round of 16
#105WTA
1694ELO
1659Hard ELO
27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLWLLLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 17 February 2025
hard
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
Kenin S.
6-4 6-0
Paolini J.
Kenin S.
662
Paolini J.
400

Sofia Kenin defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-4 6-0 in the Dubai round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jasmine Paolini came in ranked #17, defending the title. Sofia Kenin extended the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

21
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-09-24BeijingR32hardJasmine Paolini6-3 6-0
2019-09-16GuangzhouQFhardSofia Kenin7-5 6-1
2019-05-13RomeR64claySofia Kenin6-1 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Kenin S.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Paolini J.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Kenin S.

Serve advantage — Paolini J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Kenin S.Paolini J.
13
Serve
31
0
Return
55

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
50%
Service points won·Even
58%
57%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
45%
Break points saved·Even
56%
55%
Aces / match·Even
2.0
1.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.1
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (67 vs 73). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
66
89
Break points saved·Slight edge
92
87
Break points won·Clear edge
85
99
Deciding sets·Dominant
54
97
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
73
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
7.7
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.5Hard Elo 1659
Surface ELO
7.5+214 Hard Elo edge
2.6Overall Elo 1694
ELO gap
7.4Overall Elo 1905
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.0
Surface form
6.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.7
Minutes 14d
8.7
7.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
91
72

Kenin S.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Paolini J.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
27°CClear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 45%

Draw