Jelena Ostapenko vs Jasmine PaoliniDoha Round of 16

Doha · WTA · Round of 16
#31WTA
1855ELO
1794Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 177 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 9 February 2025
hard
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
Ostapenko J.
6-2 6-2
Paolini J.
Ostapenko J.
662
Paolini J.
220

Jelena Ostapenko defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-2 6-2 in the Doha round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jasmine Paolini came in ranked #17, defending last year's round of 64. Jelena Ostapenko extended the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

21
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-17MiamiR32hardJelena Ostapenko5-7 6-2 7-5
2025-05-06RomeR16clayJasmine Paolini7-5 6-2
2023-08-28US OpenR128hardJelena Ostapenko6-2 4-6 6-1

Serve vs return

This season
Ostapenko J.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Paolini J.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Ostapenko J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Ostapenko J.Paolini J.
10
Serve
31
45
Return
55

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
61%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
42%
49%
Service points won·Even
55%
57%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
50%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.7
1.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.9
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (56 vs 73). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
88
89
Break points saved·Slight edge
79
87
Break points won·Even
100
99
Deciding sets·Even
96
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
87
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 27 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
3.7Hard Elo 1794
Surface ELO
6.3+78 Hard Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1855
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1905
5.0
H2H
5.0
1.8
Surface form
6.1
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.9
Minutes 14d
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
5.9
Country comfort
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
92
76

Ostapenko J.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Paolini J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
21°CPartly cloudy
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 34%

Draw