Jelena Ostapenko vs Jasmine Paolini — US Open Round of 128

US Open · WTA · Round of 128
Jelena Ostapenko
LAT
Jelena Ostapenko
#31WTA
1855ELO
1794Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 177 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 28 August 2023
hard
Jasmine Paolini
ITA
Jasmine Paolini
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
Ostapenko J.
6-2 4-6 6-1
Paolini J.
Ostapenko J.
6462
Paolini J.
2611

Jelena Ostapenko defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-2 4-6 6-1 in the US Open round of 128 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jasmine Paolini came in ranked #17, defending last year's round of 128. Jelena Ostapenko extended the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Jelena Ostapenko came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–2 4–6 6–1.

Head to head

2–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-17MiamiR32hardJelena Ostapenko5-7 6-2 7-5
2025-05-06RomeR16clayJasmine Paolini7-5 6-2
2025-02-09DohaR16hardJelena Ostapenko6-2 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Ostapenko J.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Paolini J.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Ostapenko J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Ostapenko J.Paolini J.
10
Serve
31
45
Return
55

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Ostapenko J.Paolini J.
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
61%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
43%
49%
Service points won·Even
57%
57%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Even
54%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.9
1.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.3
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (163 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Ostapenko J.Paolini J.
Clutch Rating·Even
88
89
Break points saved·Slight edge
79
87
Break points won·Even
100
99
Deciding sets·Even
96
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
87
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Ostapenko J.Paolini J.
Freshness·Clear edge
92
76

Ostapenko J.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Paolini J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
24°CDrizzle
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 74%

Draw

Final
Gauff C.
Sabalenka A.
2-66-36-2
Semi-finals
Gauff C.
Muchova K.
6-47-5
Sabalenka A.
Keys M.
0-67-617-65
Quarter-finals
Keys M.
Vondrousova M.
6-16-4
Sabalenka A.
Zheng Q.
6-16-4
Muchova K.
Cirstea S.
6-06-3
Gauff C.
Ostapenko J.
6-06-2
R16
Gauff C.
Wozniacki C.
6-33-66-1
Sabalenka A.
Kasatkina D.
6-16-3
Ostapenko J.
Swiatek I.
3-66-36-1
Cirstea S.
Bencic B.
6-36-3
Muchova K.
Wang X.
6-35-76-1
Vondrousova M.
Stearns P.
6-736-36-2
Keys M.
Pegula J.
6-16-3
Zheng Q.
Jabeur O.
6-26-4
R32
Swiatek I.
Juvan K.
6-06-1
Bencic B.
Zhu L.
7-612-66-3
Kasatkina D.
Minnen G.
6-36-4
Stearns P.
Boulter K.
6-46-3
Vondrousova M.
Alexandrova E.
6-26-1
Cirstea S.
Rybakina E.
6-36-766-4
Gauff C.
Mertens E.
3-66-36-0
Sabalenka A.
Burel C.
6-16-1
Zheng Q.
Bronzetti L.
6-34-66-4
Jabeur O.
Bouzkova M.
5-77-656-3
Pegula J.
Svitolina E.
6-44-66-2
Keys M.
Samsonova L.
5-76-26-2
Wang X.
Schmiedlova A.
4-66-36-2
Muchova K.
Townsend T.
7-606-3
Wozniacki C.
Brady J.
4-66-36-1
Ostapenko J.
Pera B.
4-66-36-3
R64
Rybakina E.
Tomljanovic A.
W/O
Brady J.
Linette M.
6-12-66-2
Mertens E.
Collins D.
3-67-676-1
Minnen G.
Vickery S.
6-34-66-4
Burel C.
Pliskova K.
6-46-2
Sabalenka A.
Burrage J.
6-36-2
Pera B.
Wang X.
3-67-656-2
Wozniacki C.
Kvitova P.
7-57-65
Swiatek I.
Saville D.
6-36-4
Gauff C.
Andreeva M.
6-36-2
Stearns P.
Tauson C.
6-36-0
Alexandrova E.
Tsurenko L.
6-16-3
Vondrousova M.
Trevisan M.
6-26-2
Samsonova L.
Korpatsch T.
6-36-3
Kasatkina D.
Kenin S.
2-66-46-4
Pegula J.
Tig P.
6-36-1
Bronzetti L.
Lys E.
6-36-2
Zheng Q.
Kanepi K.
6-23-66-2
Bouzkova M.
Martic P.
6-16-2
Jabeur O.
Noskova L.
7-674-66-3
Cirstea S.
Kalinskaya A.
6-36-4
Zhu L.
Azarenka V.
6-36-3
Bencic B.
Miyazaki Y.
6-36-3
Muchova K.
Frech M.
6-36-3
Townsend T.
Haddad Maia B.
7-617-5
Juvan K.
Davis L.
6-736-46-3
Ostapenko J.
Avanesyan E.
6-35-77-5
Wang X.
Sorribes Tormo S.
5-76-36-4
Schmiedlova A.
Masarova R.
7-606-2
Svitolina E.
Pavlyuchenkova A.
5-76-46-4
Boulter K.
Wang Y.
5-76-16-4
Keys M.
Wickmayer Y.
6-16-2
R128
Collins D.
Fruhvirtova L.
6-26-0
Mertens E.
Bjorklund M.
3-66-37-63
Cirstea S.
Day K.
6-26-3
Townsend T.
Gracheva V.
6-46-2
Frech M.
Navarro E.
7-6101-66-2
Tauson C.
Potapova A.
7-643-66-3
Keys M.
Rus A.
6-26-4
Wickmayer Y.
Zvonareva V.
6-46-4
Korpatsch T.
Begu I.
6-36-2
Lys E.
Montgomery R.
6-26-1
Burel C.
Dolehide C.
6-46-3
Pliskova K.
Ruse E.
6-16-4
Vickery S.
Vekic D.
2-67-56-2
Minnen G.
Williams V.
6-16-1
Miyazaki Y.
Gasparyan M.
6-36-3
Tig P.
Marino R.
7-667-61
Juvan K.
Cocciaretto E.
6-27-5
Avanesyan E.
Cornet A.
6-21-66-4
Ostapenko J.
Paolini J.
6-24-66-1
Davis L.
Kovinic D.
6-26-2
Kalinskaya A.
Siniakova K.
6-46-2
Sorribes Tormo S.
Kalinina A.
6-47-5
Haddad Maia B.
Stephens S.
6-25-76-4
Stearns P.
Tomova V.
6-36-4
Boulter K.
Parry D.
6-46-0
Wang Y.
Garcia C.
6-46-1
Samsonova L.
Liu C.
7-636-3
Vondrousova M.
Han N.
6-36-0
Kenin S.
Bogdan A.
7-626-4
Sabalenka A.
Zanevska M.
6-36-2
Burrage J.
Blinkova A.
6-36-4
Pera B.
Kudermetova V.
7-56-4
Kasatkina D.
Parks A.
2-66-46-2
Bronzetti L.
Krejcikova B.
6-47-63
Kanepi K.
Strycova B.
6-46-4
Zheng Q.
Podoroska N.
6-16-0
Bouzkova M.
Krueger A.
7-56-4
Martic P.
Maria T.
6-26-1
Noskova L.
Brengle M.
6-26-1
Jabeur O.
Osorio C.
7-57-64
Pegula J.
Giorgi C.
6-26-2
Pavlyuchenkova A.
Crawley F.
6-26-4
Svitolina E.
Friedsam A.
6-36-1
Trevisan M.
Putintseva Y.
0-67-607-68
Tsurenko L.
Jacquemot E.
7-53-66-1
Alexandrova E.
Fernandez L.
7-645-76-4
Masarova R.
Sakkari M.
6-46-4
Schmiedlova A.
Baindl K.
6-43-66-3
Wang X.
Volynets K.
6-36-4
Muchova K.
Hunter S.
6-46-0
Bencic B.
Rakhimova K.
6-26-4
Zhu L.
Sherif M.
6-37-5
Azarenka V.
Ferro F.
6-16-2
Tomljanovic A.
Udvardy P.
3-66-26-4
Rybakina E.
Kostyuk M.
6-26-1
Gauff C.
Siegemund L.
3-66-26-4
Andreeva M.
Gadecki O.
1-66-36-4
Linette M.
Sasnovich A.
6-36-1
Brady J.
Birrell K.
6-37-64
Wozniacki C.
Prozorova T.
6-36-2
Kvitova P.
Bucsa C.
6-17-65
Wang X.
Hruncakova V.
4-66-37-66
Saville D.
Ngounoue C.
6-06-2
Swiatek I.
Peterson R.
6-06-1