Matteo Arnaldi vs Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDallas Round of 16

Dallas · ATP · Round of 16
#35ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 3 February 2025
hard
#23ATP
1893ELO
1842Hard ELO
$926kYTD
$12MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWLW
Arnaldi M.
6-1 6-3
Davidovich Fokina A.
Arnaldi M.
662
Davidovich Fokina A.
130

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-1 6-3 in the Dallas round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alejandro Davidovich Fokina came in ranked #23, leading the head-to-head 2–1. Matteo Arnaldi narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-01Shanghai MastersR64hardAlejandro Davidovich Fokina6-4 6-4
2025-02-10Delray BeachSFhardAlejandro Davidovich Fokina6-4 6-4
2024-08-05Canada MastersR16hardMatteo Arnaldi4-6 7-6(5) 3-0 RET

Serve vs return

This season
Arnaldi M.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Davidovich Fokina A.

Davidovich Fokina A.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Serve advantage — Davidovich Fokina A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Arnaldi M.Davidovich Fokina A.
23
Serve
40
22
Return
53

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
56%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
61%
64%
Return points won·Even
36%
38%
Break points saved·Even
62%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.7
3.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.5
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (60 vs 85). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
91
Break points saved·Even
97
99
Break points won·Dominant
51
95
Deciding sets·Slight edge
86
91
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
99
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.1Hard Elo 1732
Surface ELO
6.9+110 Hard Elo edge
3.1Overall Elo 1830
ELO gap
6.9Overall Elo 1893
10.0
H2H
0.0
2.9
Surface form
6.1
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
94
70

Arnaldi M.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Davidovich Fokina A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 55 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast