Yosuke Watanuki vs Pavel Kotov — Shanghai Masters Round of 128

Shanghai Masters · ATP · Round of 128
Yosuke Watanuki
JPN
Yosuke Watanuki
#294ATP
1541ELO
1531Hard ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLLLLLLW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 2 October 2024
hard
Pavel Kotov
RUS
Pavel Kotov
#249ATP
1597ELO
1601Hard ELO
27 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLLWLWL
Watanuki Y.
6-7 6-4 7-5
Kotov P.
Watanuki Y.
66672
Kotov P.
78451

Yosuke Watanuki defeated Pavel Kotov 6-7 6-4 7-5 in the Shanghai Masters round of 128 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Pavel Kotov came in ranked #249, defending last year's round of 128. Yosuke Watanuki extended the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-02-24DubaiQ1hardPavel Kotov6-3 6-3
2023-04-24Madrid MastersQ2clayYosuke Watanuki6-7(7) 6-3 7-6(3)

Serve vs return

This season
Watanuki Y.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Kotov P.

Kotov P.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Watanuki Y.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Watanuki Y.Kotov P.
1st serve in·Clear edge
53%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
49%
Service points won·Even
64%
63%
Return points won·Even
37%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.1
5.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.0
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (84 vs 105). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Watanuki Y.Kotov P.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
52
59
Break points saved·Slight edge
89
94
Break points won·Slight edge
20
13
Deciding sets·Clear edge
61
82
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
81
76

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Watanuki Y.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Kotov P.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.1Hard Elo 1531
Surface ELO
5.9+70 Hard Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1541
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1597
5.0
H2H
5.0
2.8
Surface form
5.8
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.7
Minutes 14d
3.9
4.0
3-set count
4.0
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Watanuki Y.Kotov P.
Freshness·
88
—

Watanuki Y.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 22 km/hHumidity 50%
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Djokovic N.[4]
7-646-3
Semi-finals
Sinner J.[1]
Machac T.[30]
6-47-5
Djokovic N.[4]
Fritz T.[7]
6-47-66
Quarter-finals
Sinner J.[1]
Medvedev D.[5]
6-16-4
Fritz T.[7]
Goffin D.
6-36-4
Djokovic N.[4]
Mensik J.
6-746-16-4
Machac T.[30]
Alcaraz C.[3]
7-657-5
R16
Alcaraz C.[3]
Monfils G.
6-47-5
Djokovic N.[4]
Safiullin R.
6-36-2
Goffin D.
Zverev A.[2]
6-47-5
Sinner J.[1]
Shelton B.[14]
6-47-61
Machac T.[30]
Paul T.[11]
3-66-46-3
Medvedev D.[5]
Tsitsipas S.[10]
7-636-3
Mensik J.
Dimitrov G.[9]
6-33-66-4
Fritz T.[7]
Rune H.[12]
6-16-2
R32
Mensik J.
Shevchenko A.
6-16-756-2
Rune H.[12]
Lehecka J.
6-47-5
Machac T.[30]
Vukic A.
6-46-2
Shelton B.[14]
Carballes Baena R.
6-36-4
Goffin D.
Giron M.
1-66-37-5
Paul T.[11]
Tabilo A.[19]
6-727-666-2
Tsitsipas S.[10]
Muller A.
6-37-5
Monfils G.
Humbert U.[16]
7-672-66-1
Safiullin R.
Tiafoe F.[13]
5-77-57-65
Fritz T.[7]
Watanuki Y.
6-36-4
Dimitrov G.[9]
Popyrin A.[20]
7-656-2
Medvedev D.[5]
Arnaldi M.[29]
5-76-46-4
Sinner J.[1]
Etcheverry T.[31]
6-736-46-2
Alcaraz C.[3]
Wu Y.
7-656-3
Zverev A.[2]
Griekspoor T.
7-662-67-65
Djokovic N.[4]
Cobolli F.[28]
6-16-2
R64
Carballes Baena R.
Fils A.[21]
7-647-65
Fritz T.[7]
Atmane T.
7-647-65
Djokovic N.[4]
Michelsen A.
7-637-69
Rune H.[12]
Berrettini M.
4-66-46-3
Sinner J.[1]
Daniel T.
6-16-4
Shelton B.[14]
Shapovalov D.
6-37-5
Tsitsipas S.[10]
Nishikori K.
7-666-4
Muller A.
Auger Aliassime F.[18]
6-36-2
Arnaldi M.[29]
Svajda Z.
6-726-26-4
Medvedev D.[5]
Seyboth Wild T.
7-57-5
Wu Y.
Jarry N.[25]
6-26-1
Humbert U.[16]
Cazaux A.
6-36-2
Machac T.[30]
Davidovich Fokina A.
1-67-636-4
Vukic A.
Ruud C.[8]
6-46-4
Popyrin A.[20]
Kecmanovic M.
6-36-2
Dimitrov G.[9]
Bergs Z.
6-33-66-2
Cobolli F.[28]
Wawrinka S.
6-767-646-3
Watanuki Y.
Nakashima B.[32]
7-646-3
Lehecka J.
Munar J.
7-666-4
Giron M.
Khachanov K.[24]
6-46-3
Griekspoor T.
Thompson J.[26]
6-36-2
Monfils G.
Baez S.[22]
6-34-66-4
Shevchenko A.
Cerundolo F.[27]
7-677-5
Safiullin R.
Bublik A.[23]
6-46-2
Paul T.[11]
Fognini F.
6-16-3
Goffin D.
Musetti L.[15]
1-67-666-2
Tiafoe F.[13]
Zhou Y.
6-26-4
Tabilo A.[19]
Rinderknech A.
6-36-2
Etcheverry T.[31]
Van De Zandschulp B.
7-653-67-5
Mensik J.
Rublev A.[6]
6-776-46-3
Alcaraz C.[3]
Shang J.
6-26-2
Zverev A.[2]
Bellucci M.
6-46-2
R128
Nishikori K.
Navone M.
3-66-46-3
Svajda Z.
Mannarino A.
6-31-66-0
Zhou Y.
Nishioka Y.
2-4
Wawrinka S.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
7-627-66
Berrettini M.
Oconnell C.
7-697-66
Shapovalov D.
Sonego L.
7-657-68
Rinderknech A.
Opelka R.
6-47-65
Carballes Baena R.
Bautista Agut R.
3-66-36-2
Daniel T.
Gerasimov E.
6-756-36-4
Van De Zandschulp B.
Carreno Busta P.
7-656-2
Seyboth Wild T.
Evans D.
6-24-67-63
Shang J.
Wong C.
6-46-4
Wu Y.
Nagal S.
6-36-3
Monfils G.
Dzumhur D.
6-46-3
Cazaux A.
Cilic M.
6-46-4
Davidovich Fokina A.
Diallo G.
7-57-67
Mensik J.
Martinez P.
6-15-76-4
Shevchenko A.
Ramanathan R.
6-17-63
Kecmanovic M.
Hijikata R.
6-26-2
Bergs Z.
Zhang Z.
6-46-3
Michelsen A.
Yunchaokete B.
6-36-4
Goffin D.
Duckworth J.
6-46-2
Griekspoor T.
Diaz Acosta F.
6-46-766-3
Muller A.
Nardi L.
4-66-16-1
Vukic A.
Moutet C.
2-66-36-4
Munar J.
Gaston H.
6-36-3
Fognini F.
Darderi L.
6-46-756-4
Giron M.
Tu L.
6-17-64
Bellucci M.
Harris B.
6-36-4
Safiullin R.
Zhukayev B.
7-606-4
Atmane T.
Kovacevic A.
6-47-64
Watanuki Y.
Kotov P.
6-766-47-5