Alexei Popyrin vs Sebastian KordaCanada Masters Semi-final

Canada Masters · ATP · Semi-final
#103ATP
1741ELO
1681Hard ELO
$563kYTD
$9.7MCAREER
26 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 5 August 2024
hard
#63ATP
1809ELO
1765Hard ELO
$471kYTD
$9.0MCAREER
26 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWWW
Popyrin A.
7-6 6-3
Korda S.
Popyrin A.
7762
Korda S.
6030

Alexei Popyrin defeated Sebastian Korda 7-6 6-3 in the Canada Masters semi-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Sebastian Korda came in ranked #63, leading the head-to-head 3–0, defending last year's round of 32. Alexei Popyrin claimed a first win over Sebastian Korda in four meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

03
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-02AthensR32hardSebastian Korda4-6 6-3 6-4
2025-10-13StockholmR32hardSebastian Korda6-7(4) 6-1 6-3
2023-09-25AstanaR32hardSebastian Korda7-6(5) 6-7(4) 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Popyrin A.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Korda S.

Korda S.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Popyrin A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Popyrin A.Korda S.
40
Serve
61
11
Return
58

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
53%
Service points won·Even
66%
66%
Return points won·Even
34%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
61%
Aces / match·Slight edge
9.7
8.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.9
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (106 vs 113). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
59
87
Break points saved·Even
99
98
Break points won·Dominant
6
73
Deciding sets·Clear edge
75
96
Tiebreaks·Even
93
94

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
2.4Hard Elo 1681
Surface ELO
7.6+85 Hard Elo edge
2.6Overall Elo 1741
ELO gap
7.4Overall Elo 1809
0.0
H2H
10.0
7.2
Surface form
7.9
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
9.2
Minutes 14d
5.4
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
7.0
6.0
Surface transition
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
98

Popyrin A.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°CDrizzle
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 72%
Semi-finals
Rublev A.[5]
Arnaldi M.
6-46-2
Popyrin A.
Korda S.
7-606-3