Maria Lourdes Carle vs Tatjana Maria — Palermo Round of 32

Palermo · WTA · Round of 32
ARG
Maria Lourdes Carle
#218WTA
1484ELO
1461Clay ELO
26 yrs · 166 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 15 July 2024
clay
Tatjana Maria
GER8
Tatjana Maria
#76WTA
1703ELO
1585Clay ELO
38 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWLWW
Carle M.
5-7 6-1 6-1
Maria T.
Carle M.
5662
Maria T.
7111

Maria Lourdes Carle defeated Tatjana Maria 5-7 6-1 6-1 in the Palermo round of 32 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Tatjana Maria came in ranked #76. Maria Lourdes Carle extended the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-07-29Paris OlympicsR64clayMaria Lourdes Carle6-0 6-0
2022-04-04BogotaR32clayTatjana Maria6-1 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Carle M.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Maria T.

Maria T.serving52% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Carle M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Carle M.Maria T.
—
Serve
12
—
Return
16

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Carle M.Maria T.
1st serve in·Clear edge
69%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
58%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
39%
45%
Service points won·Even
52%
56%
Return points won·Slight edge
49%
42%
Break points saved·Even
51%
50%
Aces / match·Dominant
0.7
3.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.2
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (139 vs 133). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Carle M.Maria T.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
27
13
Break points saved·Slight edge
26
31
Break points won·Clear edge
97
78
Deciding sets·Dominant
55
9
Tiebreaks·Dominant
5
58

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Carle M.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Maria T.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
4.1Clay Elo 1461
Surface ELO
5.9+124 Clay Elo edge
3.4Overall Elo 1484
ELO gap
6.6Overall Elo 1703
0.0
H2H
10.0
4.5
Surface form
3.6
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
8.9
Minutes 14d
8.7
7.0
3-set count
Prev. match
7.0
Surface transition
3.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Carle M.Maria T.
Freshness·Clear edge
88
64

Carle M.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Maria T.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 81 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
32°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 52%

Draw

Final
Zheng Q.[1]
Muchova K.[2]
6-44-66-2
Semi-finals
Muchova K.[2]
Begu I.
6-16-1
Zheng Q.[1]
Parry D.[4]
7-56-4
Quarter-finals
Muchova K.[2]
Sharma A.
7-657-66
Zheng Q.[1]
Cristian J.[7]
6-16-1
Begu I.
Li A.
6-36-4
Parry D.[4]
Paquet C.
7-51-66-4
R16
Muchova K.[2]
Noha Akugue N.
6-706-26-3
Paquet C.
Carle M.
6-36-1
Begu I.
Rus A.[5]
6-27-5
Cristian J.[7]
Bronzetti L.
6-36-2
Parry D.[4]
Teichmann J.
6-26-746-2
Sharma A.
Tomljanovic A.
6-43-66-1
Zheng Q.[1]
Martic P.
6-46-4
Li A.
Andreeva E.
6-34-66-4
R32
Andreeva E.
Semenistaja D.
6-16-2
Begu I.
Bassols Ribera M.
6-06-0
Carle M.
Maria T.[8]
5-76-16-1
Muchova K.[2]
Kawa K.
7-6145-1
Tomljanovic A.
Sherif M.
3-67-56-3
Sharma A.
Blinkova A.[6]
6-07-5
Martic P.
Arango E.
6-26-3
Cristian J.[7]
Riera J.
6-36-2
Rus A.[5]
Trevisan M.
6-756-46-2
Bronzetti L.
Jacquemot E.
7-53-66-3
Noha Akugue N.
Barthel M.
6-42-66-2
Zheng Q.[1]
Errani S.
6-36-2
Parry D.[4]
Gadecki O.
4-66-46-4
Paquet C.
Zheng S.
6-36-3
Li A.
Stearns P.[3]
3-67-676-2
Teichmann J.
Ristic M.
6-16-1