Brandon Nakashima vs Andrey RublevBarcelona Round of 32

Barcelona · ATP · Round of 32
#32ATP
1839ELO
1735Clay ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 15 April 2024
clay
#16ATP
1902ELO
1872Clay ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWWW
Nakashima B.
6-4 7-6
Rublev A.
Nakashima B.
6782
Rublev A.
4660

Brandon Nakashima defeated Andrey Rublev 6-4 7-6 in the Barcelona round of 32 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Andrey Rublev came in ranked #16, leading the head-to-head 3–0. Brandon Nakashima claimed a first win over Andrey Rublev in four meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

03
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-08-12Cincinnati MastersR16hardAndrey Rublev7-6(5) 6-1
2024-08-05Canada MastersR16hardAndrey Rublev6-2 6-2
2021-09-27San DiegoR16hardAndrey Rublev6-2 6-1

Serve vs return

This season
Nakashima B.serving87% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Rublev A.

Rublev A.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Nakashima B.Rublev A.
Serve
14
Return
62

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
52%
Service points won·Even
68%
67%
Return points won·Even
35%
37%
Break points saved·Even
66%
66%
Aces / match·Slight edge
8.6
7.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.2
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (176 vs 150). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
56
89
Break points saved·Even
99
100
Break points won·Dominant
13
72
Deciding sets·Dominant
64
97
Tiebreaks·Even
89
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.3Clay Elo 1735
Surface ELO
6.7+138 Clay Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 1839
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1902
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.6
Surface form
6.5
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.2
Minutes 14d
9.0
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
88
95

Nakashima B.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Rublev A.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 40%