Brandon Nakashima vs Mattia BellucciPau CH Quarter-final

Pau CH · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#32ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 19 February 2024
hard
#80ATP
1720ELO
1678Hard ELO
$587kYTD
$2.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWLL
Nakashima B.
3-6 6-4 7-6
Bellucci M.
Nakashima B.
36772
Bellucci M.
64621

Brandon Nakashima defeated Mattia Bellucci 3-6 6-4 7-6 in the Pau CH quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Brandon Nakashima came in ranked #32, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Brandon Nakashima extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-09DallasR32hardBrandon Nakashima6-3 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Nakashima B.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Bellucci M.

Bellucci M.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Nakashima B.Bellucci M.
61
Serve
0
23
Return
40

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
52%
Service points won·Even
68%
64%
Return points won·Even
35%
37%
Break points saved·Even
66%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
8.6
6.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.2
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (176 vs 170). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
56
60
Break points saved·Even
99
96
Break points won·Even
13
10
Deciding sets·Clear edge
64
81
Tiebreaks·Even
89
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.5+110 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.5Hard Elo 1678
6.7Overall Elo 1839
ELO gap
3.3Overall Elo 1720
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.9
Surface form
3.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
8.4
Minutes 14d
7.2
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
90
100

Nakashima B.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Bellucci M.: 21 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast