Alexander Bublik vs Lorenzo MusettiAdelaide Quarter-final

Adelaide · ATP · Quarter-final
#11ATP
1889ELO
1837Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 8 January 2024
hard
#15ATP
1869ELO
1804Hard ELO
$961kYTD
$15MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL
Bublik A.
6-3 6-7 7-5
Musetti L.
Bublik A.
66472
Musetti L.
37751

Alexander Bublik defeated Lorenzo Musetti 6-3 6-7 7-5 in the Adelaide quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Alexander Bublik came in ranked #11, leading the head-to-head 2–1. Alexander Bublik extended the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

21
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-05Hong KongFhardAlexander Bublik7-6(2) 6-3
2024-06-10StuttgartQFgrassLorenzo Musetti4-6 6-1 1-0 RET
2022-06-13Queen's ClubR32grassAlexander Bublik6-3 0-0 RET

Serve vs return

This season
Bublik A.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Musetti L.

Musetti L.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Bublik A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Bublik A.Musetti L.
65
Serve
54
25
Return
62

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
77%
71%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
54%
Service points won·Even
65%
65%
Return points won·Even
35%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
11.1
4.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.1
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (140 vs 155). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
88
89
Break points saved·Even
99
98
Break points won·Clear edge
67
82
Deciding sets·Even
99
99
Tiebreaks·Even
96
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 63 days (−1.2)
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.4+33 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.6Hard Elo 1804
4.5Overall Elo 1889
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1869
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.5
Surface form
2.8
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
7.9
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
66

Bublik A.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 88 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 62%