Mattia Bellucci vs Pablo Carreno BustaMalaga CH Round of 16

Malaga CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#80ATP
1720ELO
1678Hard ELO
$587kYTD
$2.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 9 October 2023
hard
#65ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWWWLW
Bellucci M.
6-3 7-6
Carreno Busta P.
Bellucci M.
6772
Carreno Busta P.
3600

Mattia Bellucci defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 6-3 7-6 in the Malaga CH round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in ranked #65, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Mattia Bellucci claimed a first win over Pablo Carreno Busta in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-04BrisbaneQ1hardPablo Carreno Busta6-4 2-6 7-6(3)

Serve vs return

This season
Bellucci M.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Bellucci M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Bellucci M.Carreno Busta P.
0
Serve
21
40
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
51%
Service points won·Even
65%
63%
Return points won·Even
37%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.2
3.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.8
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 122). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
60
78
Break points saved·Even
96
97
Break points won·Dominant
10
61
Deciding sets·Even
81
80
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
85
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.2Hard Elo 1678
Surface ELO
5.8+66 Hard Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 1720
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1801
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.5
Surface form
4.4
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
4.6
Minutes 14d
8.9
4.0
3-set count
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
6.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
100
94

Bellucci M.: 21 days rest · Carreno Busta P.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast