Pablo Carreno Busta vs Mattia BellucciBrisbane Qualifying Round 1

Brisbane · ATP · Qualifying Round 1
#71ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#67ATP
1720ELO
1678Hard ELO
$587kYTD
$2.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWLL
Carreno Busta P.
6-4 2-6 7-6
Bellucci M.
Carreno Busta P.
62772
Bellucci M.
46631

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Mattia Bellucci 6-4 2-6 7-6 in the Brisbane qualifying round 1 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Mattia Bellucci came in ranked #67.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Carreno Busta P.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Bellucci M.

Bellucci M.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Serve advantage — Carreno Busta P.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Carreno Busta P.Bellucci M.
21
Serve
0
44
Return
40

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
50%
Service points won·Even
63%
64%
Return points won·Even
40%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
53%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.6
4.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.4
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
60
Break points saved·Even
97
96
Break points won·Dominant
61
10
Deciding sets·Even
80
81
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
95
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 42 days (−0.7)
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 69 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
5.8+66 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.2Hard Elo 1678
6.0Overall Elo 1801
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1720
0.0No prior meetings
H2H
10.0
5.4
Surface form
3.2
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
5.6
Country comfort
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
90
100

Carreno Busta P.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Bellucci M.: 19 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%