Matteo Arnaldi vs Cristian GarinDavis Cup Finals RR: ITA vs CHI Round Robin

Davis Cup Finals RR: ITA vs CHI · ATP · Round Robin
#34ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Friday, 15 September 2023
hard
#141ATP
1667ELO
1572Hard ELO
$365kYTD
$7.0MCAREER
30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLLWWLW
Arnaldi M.
2-6 6-4 6-3
Garin C.
Arnaldi M.
2662
Garin C.
6431

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Cristian Garin 2-6 6-4 6-3 in the Davis Cup Finals RR: ITA vs CHI round robin on hard. The result followed the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #34. Matteo Arnaldi claimed a first win over Cristian Garin in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-05Monte Carlo MastersR64clayCristian Garin6-2 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Arnaldi M.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Garin C.

Garin C.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Serve advantage — Garin C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Arnaldi M.Garin C.
23
Serve
22
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
62%
62%
Return points won·Even
37%
40%
Break points saved·Even
63%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.8
4.1
Double faults / match·Even
3.3
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (194 vs 198). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
63
Break points saved·Even
97
94
Break points won·Slight edge
51
45
Deciding sets·Even
86
83
Tiebreaks·Dominant
99
43

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 32 days (−0.7)
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.3+160 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.7Hard Elo 1572
5.6Overall Elo 1830
ELO gap
4.4Overall Elo 1667
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.2
Surface form
6.9
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
97

Arnaldi M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About