Madison Keys vs Jasmine PaoliniDubai Round of 64

Dubai · WTA · Round of 64
#23WTA
1987ELO
1920Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 20 February 2023
hard
#15WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
Keys M.
6-1 6-1
Paolini J.
Keys M.
662
Paolini J.
110

Madison Keys defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-1 6-1 in the Dubai round of 64 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jasmine Paolini came in ranked #15, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Madison Keys claimed a first win over Jasmine Paolini in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-07-01WimbledonR16grassJasmine Paolini6-3 6-7(6) 5-5 RET

Serve vs return

This season
Keys M.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Paolini J.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Serve advantage — Keys M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Keys M.Paolini J.
36
Serve
31
29
Return
55

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
49%
Service points won·Even
60%
57%
Return points won·Even
44%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.0
1.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.7
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (153 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
94
89
Break points saved·Slight edge
96
87
Break points won·Slight edge
90
99
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Even
96
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.2+48 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.8Hard Elo 1873
5.3Overall Elo 1987
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1905
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.8
Surface form
5.8
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
9.2
Minutes 14d
9.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
84
79

Keys M.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d) · Paolini J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 23 km/hHumidity 60%

Draw