Juan Pablo Varillas vs Lorenzo MusettiBuenos Aires Quarter-final

Buenos Aires · ATP · Quarter-final
#308ATP
1440ELO
1431Clay ELO
30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLLLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 13 February 2023
clay
#15ATP
1869ELO
1853Clay ELO
$961kYTD
$15MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL
Varillas J.
6-4 6-4
Musetti L.
Varillas J.
662
Musetti L.
440

Juan Pablo Varillas defeated Lorenzo Musetti 6-4 6-4 in the Buenos Aires quarter-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Lorenzo Musetti came in ranked #15, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Juan Pablo Varillas claimed a first win over Lorenzo Musetti in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-07-03WimbledonR128grassLorenzo Musetti6-3 6-1 7-5

Serve vs return

This season
Varillas J.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Musetti L.

Musetti L.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Varillas J.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Varillas J.Musetti L.
Serve
35
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
53%
Service points won·Even
61%
64%
Return points won·Even
40%
38%
Break points saved·Even
58%
60%
Aces / match·Even
3.7
4.1
Double faults / match·Even
1.9
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (187 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
55
89
Break points saved·Clear edge
80
98
Break points won·Dominant
43
82
Deciding sets·Dominant
63
99
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
72
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
0.0Clay Elo 1431
Surface ELO
10.0+422 Clay Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1440
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 1869
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.6
Surface form
7.9
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
8.8
Minutes 14d
7.0
Prev. match
2.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
49

Varillas J.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 111 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
24°CRain
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 91%