Varvara Gracheva vs Daria Kasatkina — Australian Open Round of 128

Australian Open · WTA · Round of 128
Varvara Gracheva
FRA
Varvara Gracheva
#88WTA
1810ELO
1763Hard ELO
25 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 16 January 2023
hard
Daria Kasatkina
AUS8
Daria Kasatkina
#65WTA
1795ELO
1757Hard ELO
29 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLWWL
Gracheva V.
6-1 6-1
Kasatkina D.
Gracheva V.
662
Kasatkina D.
110

Varvara Gracheva defeated Daria Kasatkina 6-1 6-1 in the Australian Open round of 128 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Daria Kasatkina came in ranked #65, leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending last year's round of 32. Varvara Gracheva narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

1–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-08-14CincinnatiR32hardDaria Kasatkina6-3 6-1
2023-03-06Indian WellsR32hardVarvara Gracheva6-4 6-4
2021-02-13Phillip Island TrophyR32hardDaria Kasatkina6-4 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Gracheva V.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Kasatkina D.

Kasatkina D.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Gracheva V.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Gracheva V.Kasatkina D.
3
Serve
0
27
Return
95

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Gracheva V.Kasatkina D.
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
70%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
60%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
41%
Service points won·Even
56%
54%
Return points won·Even
44%
48%
Break points saved·Even
53%
54%
Aces / match·Even
2.0
1.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.3
4.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (192 vs 184). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Gracheva V.Kasatkina D.
Clutch Rating·Even
74
78
Break points saved·Even
76
80
Break points won·Clear edge
87
100
Deciding sets·Even
90
93
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
65
47

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Gracheva V.
3.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 98 days (−1.5)
Kasatkina D.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0+6 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.0Hard Elo 1757
5.0Overall Elo 1810
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 1795
0.0
H2H
10.0
3.2
Surface form
5.6
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
6.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
8.0
Country comfort
6.3
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Gracheva V.Kasatkina D.
Freshness·
—
89

Kasatkina D.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw

Final
Sabalenka A.[5]
Rybakina E.[22]
4-66-36-4
Semi-finals
Sabalenka A.[5]
Linette M.
7-616-2
Rybakina E.[22]
Azarenka V.[24]
7-646-3
Quarter-finals
Rybakina E.[22]
Ostapenko J.[17]
6-26-4
Linette M.
Pliskova K.[30]
6-37-5
Sabalenka A.[5]
Vekic D.
6-36-2
Azarenka V.[24]
Pegula J.[3]
6-46-1
R16
Linette M.
Garcia C.[4]
7-636-4
Sabalenka A.[5]
Bencic B.[12]
7-56-2
Rybakina E.[22]
Swiatek I.[1]
6-46-4
Ostapenko J.[17]
Gauff C.[7]
7-56-3
Azarenka V.[24]
Zhu L.
4-66-16-4
Vekic D.
Fruhvirtova L.
6-21-66-3
Pliskova K.[30]
Zhang S.[23]
6-06-4
Pegula J.[3]
Krejcikova B.[20]
7-56-2
R32
Rybakina E.[22]
Collins D.[13]
6-25-76-2
Pegula J.[3]
Kostyuk M.
6-06-2
Krejcikova B.[20]
Kalinina A.
6-26-3
Azarenka V.[24]
Keys M.[10]
1-66-26-1
Zhu L.
Sakkari M.[6]
7-631-66-4
Pliskova K.[30]
Gracheva V.
6-46-2
Linette M.
Alexandrova E.[19]
6-36-4
Bencic B.[12]
Giorgi C.
6-27-5
Sabalenka A.[5]
Mertens E.[26]
6-26-3
Swiatek I.[1]
Bucsa C.
6-06-1
Garcia C.[4]
Siegemund L.
1-66-36-3
Fruhvirtova L.
Vondrousova M.
7-52-66-3
Vekic D.
Parrizas Diaz N.
6-26-2
Gauff C.[7]
Pera B.
6-36-2
Zhang S.[23]
Volynets K.
6-36-2
Ostapenko J.[17]
Baindl K.
6-36-0
R64
Baindl K.
Mcnally C.
6-17-64
Gauff C.[7]
Raducanu E.
6-37-64
Pegula J.[3]
Sasnovich A.
6-27-65
Keys M.[10]
Wang X.
6-36-2
Azarenka V.[24]
Podoroska N.
6-16-0
Sabalenka A.[5]
Rogers S.
6-36-1
Krejcikova B.[20]
Burel C.
6-46-1
Vekic D.
Samsonova L.[18]
6-36-0
Kostyuk M.
Gadecki O.
6-26-1
Linette M.
Kontaveit A.[16]
3-66-36-4
Bucsa C.
Andreescu B.
2-67-676-4
Collins D.[13]
Muchova K.
6-716-27-66
Ostapenko J.[17]
Bondar A.
7-655-76-0
Pera B.
Zheng Q.[29]
6-46-4
Zhu L.
Teichmann J.[32]
6-26-2
Sakkari M.[6]
Shnaider D.
3-67-56-3
Pliskova K.[30]
Putintseva Y.
6-07-5
Zhang S.[23]
Martic P.
6-36-3
Alexandrova E.[19]
Townsend T.
1-66-26-3
Siegemund L.
Begu I.[27]
5-77-56-3
Garcia C.[4]
Fernandez L.
7-657-5
Giorgi C.
Schmiedlova A.
6-46-3
Bencic B.[12]
Liu C.
7-636-3
Parrizas Diaz N.
Potapova A.
6-36-2
Fruhvirtova L.
Birrell K.
6-36-2
Vondrousova M.
Jabeur O.[2]
6-15-76-1
Volynets K.
Kudermetova V.[9]
6-42-66-2
Gracheva V.
Stefanini L.
6-36-1
Swiatek I.[1]
Osorio C.
6-26-3
Mertens E.[26]
Davis L.
6-46-3
Kalinina A.
Kvitova P.[15]
7-56-4
Rybakina E.[22]
Juvan K.
6-26-1
R128
Osorio C.
Udvardy P.
6-46-1
Andreescu B.
Bouzkova M.[25]
6-26-4
Krejcikova B.[20]
Bejlek S.
6-36-1
Burel C.
Gibson T.
6-36-4
Keys M.[10]
Blinkova A.
6-43-66-2
Azarenka V.[24]
Kenin S.
6-47-63
Shnaider D.
Kucova K.
7-667-5
Kudermetova V.[9]
Zanevska M.
6-27-64
Townsend T.
Parry D.
6-16-1
Alexandrova E.[19]
Bonaventure Y.
6-26-1
Garcia C.[4]
Sebov K.
6-36-0
Rogers S.
Hartono A.
6-46-3
Davis L.
Kovinic D.
1-67-56-1
Mertens E.[26]
Muguruza G.
3-67-636-1
Schmiedlova A.
Trevisan M.[21]
6-36-2
Giorgi C.
Pavlyuchenkova A.
6-06-1
Parrizas Diaz N.
Haddad Maia B.[14]
7-6116-2
Kontaveit A.[16]
Grabher J.
6-26-3
Kvitova P.[15]
Van Uytvanck A.
7-636-2
Gadecki O.
Kudermetova P.
7-56-1
Ostapenko J.[17]
Yastremska D.
6-46-2
Kostyuk M.
Anisimova A.[28]
6-36-4
Gauff C.[7]
Siniakova K.
6-16-4
Birrell K.
Kanepi K.[31]
3-67-646-1
Samsonova L.[18]
Paolini J.
6-26-4
Begu I.[27]
Mandlik E.
3-67-616-2
Sabalenka A.[5]
Martincova T.
6-16-4
Baindl K.
Rakhimova K.
7-56-786-1
Bencic B.[12]
Tomova V.
6-16-2
Potapova A.
Stephens S.
7-626-4
Gracheva V.
Kasatkina D.[8]
6-16-1
Mcnally C.
Pigossi L.
7-56-1
Zheng Q.[29]
Galfi D.
6-06-2
Raducanu E.
Korpatsch T.
6-36-2
Pegula J.[3]
Cristian J.
6-06-1
Podoroska N.
Jeanjean L.
6-06-3
Sakkari M.[6]
Yuan Y.
6-16-4
Zhang S.[23]
Tig P.
6-14-66-0
Martic P.
Golubic V.
6-36-4
Liu C.
Brengle M.
6-36-4
Vekic D.
Selekhmeteva O.
6-22-67-67
Fruhvirtova L.
Fourlis J.
6-06-4
Vondrousova M.
Riske Amritraj A.
5-76-16-4
Jabeur O.[2]
Zidansek T.
7-684-66-1
Linette M.
Sherif M.
7-56-1
Siegemund L.
Bronzetti L.
2-66-46-3
Wang X.
Hunter S.
7-626-4
Bondar A.
Bogdan A.
6-22-66-3
Sasnovich A.
Fruhvirtova B.
7-56-2
Pera B.
Uchijima M.
2-66-36-1
Muchova K.
Tsurenko L.
6-26-1
Fernandez L.
Cornet A.
7-56-2
Swiatek I.[1]
Niemeier J.
6-47-5
Rybakina E.[22]
Cocciaretto E.
7-56-3
Juvan K.
Janicijevic S.
7-56-1
Collins D.[13]
Kalinskaya A.
7-55-76-4
Zhu L.
Marino R.
6-26-4
Putintseva Y.
Cirstea S.
2-66-46-3
Pliskova K.[30]
Wang X.
6-16-3
Volynets K.
Rodina E.
6-36-2
Bucsa C.
Lys E.
2-66-06-2
Kalinina A.
Vandeweghe C.
6-36-1
Teichmann J.[32]
Dart H.
7-56-1
Stefanini L.
Maria T.
3-67-56-4