Matteo Arnaldi vs Alexander ShevchenkoCanberra CH Round of 32

Canberra CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#34ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 1 January 2023
hard
1669ELO
1642Hard ELO
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLWWWWLL
Arnaldi M.
6-4 6-1
Shevchenko A.
Arnaldi M.
662
Shevchenko A.
410

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Alexander Shevchenko 6-4 6-1 in the Canberra CH round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alexander Shevchenko came in leading the head-to-head 1–0. Matteo Arnaldi claimed a first win over Alexander Shevchenko in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-18Miami MastersR128hardAlexander Shevchenko7-6(5) 6-7(5) 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Arnaldi M.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Shevchenko A.

Shevchenko A.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Arnaldi M.Shevchenko A.
23
Serve
27
22
Return
11

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
49%
Service points won·Even
62%
61%
Return points won·Even
37%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.8
5.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.3
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (194 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
78
77
Break points saved·Slight edge
97
92
Break points won·Slight edge
51
60
Deciding sets·Even
86
87
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
99
88

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 55 days (−0.7)
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 34 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
5.4+90 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Hard Elo 1642
5.6Overall Elo 1830
ELO gap
4.4Overall Elo 1669
10.0
H2H
0.0
3.5
Surface form
4.7
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
Surface transition
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
97
100

Arnaldi M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Shevchenko A.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast