Alexander Shevchenko vs Matteo Arnaldi — Miami Masters Round of 128

Miami Masters · ATP · Round of 128
Alexander Shevchenko
KAZ
Alexander Shevchenko
1669ELO
1642Hard ELO
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWWLLW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 18 March 2026
hard
Matteo Arnaldi
ITA
Matteo Arnaldi
#35ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Shevchenko A.
7-6 6-7 6-2
Arnaldi M.
Shevchenko A.
776562
Arnaldi M.
657721

Alexander Shevchenko defeated Matteo Arnaldi 7-6 6-7 6-2 in the Miami Masters round of 128 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in defending last year's round of 64.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Shevchenko A.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Shevchenko A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Shevchenko A.Arnaldi M.
27
Serve
23
11
Return
22

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Shevchenko A.Arnaldi M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
55%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
57%
Return points won·Even
36%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
56%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.6
3.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.5
4.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Shevchenko A.Arnaldi M.
Clutch Rating·Even
77
78
Break points saved·Slight edge
92
97
Break points won·Slight edge
60
51
Deciding sets·Even
87
86
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
88
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Shevchenko A.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Arnaldi M.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.6Hard Elo 1642
Surface ELO
5.4+90 Hard Elo edge
4.4Overall Elo 1669
ELO gap
5.6Overall Elo 1830
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
2.6
Surface form
4.1
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
6.5
Minutes 14d
9.4
0.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
4.7
Country comfort
4.9
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Shevchenko A.Arnaldi M.
Freshness·Even
98
95

Shevchenko A.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Arnaldi M.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
21°CDrizzle
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 81%
Final
Sinner J.[2]
Lehecka J.[21]
6-46-4
Semi-finals
Sinner J.[2]
Zverev A.[3]
6-37-64
Lehecka J.[21]
Fils A.[28]
6-26-2
Quarter-finals
Fils A.[28]
Paul T.[22]
6-737-647-66
Lehecka J.[21]
Landaluce M.
7-617-5
Zverev A.[3]
Cerundolo F.[18]
6-16-2
Sinner J.[2]
Tiafoe F.[19]
6-26-2
R16
Zverev A.[3]
Halys Q.
7-647-61
Cerundolo F.[18]
Humbert U.[31]
6-46-3
Tiafoe F.[19]
Atmane T.
6-41-66-4
Landaluce M.
Korda S.[32]
2-67-666-4
Lehecka J.[21]
Fritz T.[6]
6-46-746-2
Fils A.[28]
Vacherot V.[24]
6-46-746-4
Paul T.[22]
Etcheverry T.[29]
6-16-3
Sinner J.[2]
Michelsen A.
7-57-64
R32
Paul T.[22]
Collignon R.
6-23-67-65
Landaluce M.
Khachanov K.[14]
6-37-62
Fils A.[28]
Tsitsipas S.
6-06-1
Halys Q.
Majchrzak K.
7-646-1
Sinner J.[2]
Moutet C.[30]
6-16-4
Korda S.[32]
Alcaraz C.[1]
6-35-76-4
Vacherot V.[24]
Berrettini M.
7-656-4
Lehecka J.[21]
Quinn E.
6-37-66
Michelsen A.
Tabilo A.
3-66-36-4
Cerundolo F.[18]
Medvedev D.[9]
6-04-67-5
Tiafoe F.[19]
Mensik J.[12]
7-644-67-611
Atmane T.
Auger Aliassime F.[7]
6-31-66-3
Fritz T.[6]
Opelka R.
6-36-4
Zverev A.[3]
Cilic M.
6-25-76-4
Etcheverry T.[29]
Jodar R.
7-56-4
Humbert U.[31]
Shevchenko A.
6-47-62
R64
Etcheverry T.[29]
Bergs Z.
7-657-63
Opelka R.
Draper J.[25]
7-637-60
Collignon R.
Cobolli F.[13]
7-56-3
Paul T.[22]
Mannarino A.
6-22-66-4
Shevchenko A.
Shelton B.[8]
6-737-636-3
Halys Q.
Davidovich Fokina A.[16]
7-686-4
Jodar R.
Vukic A.
6-16-2
Zverev A.[3]
Damm M.
6-26-4
Mensik J.[12]
Walton A.
3-66-26-4
Humbert U.[31]
Diallo G.
6-16-4
Korda S.[32]
Ugo Carabelli C.
6-06-3
Cerundolo F.[18]
Tirante T.
6-46-2
Auger Aliassime F.[7]
Fucsovics M.
7-637-5
Lehecka J.[21]
Kouame M.
6-27-5
Majchrzak K.
Tien L.[20]
6-24-66-2
Fils A.[28]
Blanch D.
6-26-3
Vacherot V.[24]
Navone M.
6-36-4
Landaluce M.
Darderi L.[17]
6-36-746-4
Sinner J.[2]
Dzumhur D.
6-36-3
Tabilo A.
Rublev A.[15]
6-756-26-4
Berrettini M.
Bublik A.[10]
6-46-4
Quinn E.
Ruud C.[11]
6-47-67
Michelsen A.
Norrie C.[23]
7-56-746-4
Medvedev D.[9]
Sakamoto R.
6-7106-36-1
Khachanov K.[14]
Bautista Agut R.
6-36-3
Tiafoe F.[19]
Cazaux A.
7-616-1
Fritz T.[6]
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-36-726-3
Tsitsipas S.
De Minaur A.[5]
6-37-63
Moutet C.[30]
Machac T.
6-01-66-4
Atmane T.
Rinderknech A.[26]
7-646-3
Cilic M.
Nakashima B.[27]
2-66-47-67
Alcaraz C.[1]
Fonseca J.
6-46-4
R128
Bautista Agut R.
Duckworth J.
7-637-64
Damm M.
Fearnley J.
6-00-0
Bergs Z.
Brooksby J.
7-56-2
Machac T.
Nava E.
2-66-46-1
Walton A.
Baez S.
6-26-2
Cazaux A.
Barrios Vera T.
7-56-4
Fucsovics M.
Oconnell C.
7-666-3
Navone M.
Basilashvili N.
7-676-3
Sakamoto R.
Kovacevic A.
6-43-67-67
Landaluce M.
Giron M.
6-37-66
Quinn E.
Hurkacz H.
6-26-4
Opelka R.
Borges N.
6-766-27-65
Berrettini M.
Muller A.
6-46-2
Tabilo A.
Comesana F.
6-46-2
Dzumhur D.
Buse I.
6-767-666-1
Diallo G.
Wu Y.
6-27-63
Tirante T.
Royer V.
7-56-797-65
Shevchenko A.
Arnaldi M.
7-656-756-2
Kouame M.
Svajda Z.
5-76-46-4
Blanch D.
Struff J.
6-33-66-3
Halys Q.
Draxl L.
6-746-16-1
Majchrzak K.
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-1
Atmane T.
Altmaier D.
6-46-2
Ugo Carabelli C.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
2-66-37-63
Collignon R.
Dimitrov G.
7-634-67-66
Tsitsipas S.
Fery A.
6-17-64
Van De Zandschulp B.
Shapovalov D.
7-56-3
Michelsen A.
Bellucci M.
6-26-1
Mannarino A.
Zhang Z.
6-36-2
Jodar R.
Hanfmann Y.
6-44-66-1
Cilic M.
Popyrin A.
6-46-4
Fonseca J.
Marozsan F.
6-43-66-2