Marton Fucsovics vs Matteo ArnaldiCanberra CH Round of 16

Canberra CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#78ATP
1756ELO
1719Hard ELO
$550kYTD
$8.7MCAREER
34 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 1 January 2023
hard
#34ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Fucsovics M.
6-2 3-6 6-1
Arnaldi M.
Fucsovics M.
6362
Arnaldi M.
2611

Marton Fucsovics defeated Matteo Arnaldi 6-2 3-6 6-1 in the Canberra CH round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #34. Marton Fucsovics extended the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-09-24TokyoQ2hardMarton Fucsovics7-5 6-2
2024-01-01BrisbaneR32hardMatteo Arnaldi6-7(5) 6-4 7-6(7)

Serve vs return

This season
Fucsovics M.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Fucsovics M.

Serve advantage — Fucsovics M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Fucsovics M.Arnaldi M.
23
Serve
23
72
Return
22

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
51%
Service points won·Even
64%
62%
Return points won·Even
39%
37%
Break points saved·Even
59%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.2
5.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.9
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (171 vs 194). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
73
78
Break points saved·Even
97
97
Break points won·Clear edge
65
51
Deciding sets·Even
87
86
Tiebreaks·Dominant
47
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 41 days (−0.7)
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 55 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
5.5Hard Elo 1719
Surface ELO
4.5+13 Hard Elo edge
5.5Overall Elo 1756
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1830
5.0
H2H
5.0
8.0
Surface form
3.5
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
92
97

Fucsovics M.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Arnaldi M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast