Marton Fucsovics vs Matteo ArnaldiTokyo Qualifying Round 2

Tokyo · ATP · Qualifying Round 2
#76ATP
1756ELO
1719Hard ELO
$550kYTD
$8.7MCAREER
34 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLLLL
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 24 September 2025
hard
#35ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Fucsovics M.
7-5 6-2
Arnaldi M.
Fucsovics M.
762
Arnaldi M.
520

Marton Fucsovics defeated Matteo Arnaldi 7-5 6-2 in the Tokyo qualifying round 2 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #35, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 32. Marton Fucsovics claimed a first win over Matteo Arnaldi in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-01-01BrisbaneR32hardMatteo Arnaldi6-7(5) 6-4 7-6(7)

Serve vs return

This season
Fucsovics M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Fucsovics M.

Serve advantage — Fucsovics M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Fucsovics M.Arnaldi M.
23
Serve
23
73
Return
22

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
51%
Service points won·Even
65%
61%
Return points won·Even
39%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.9
5.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.7
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (70 vs 61). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
73
78
Break points saved·Even
97
97
Break points won·Clear edge
65
51
Deciding sets·Even
87
86
Tiebreaks·Dominant
47
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.5Hard Elo 1719
Surface ELO
4.5+13 Hard Elo edge
5.5Overall Elo 1756
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1830
4.6
H2H
5.4
7.1
Surface form
3.4
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
8.3
7.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
89
96

Fucsovics M.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Arnaldi M.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CPartly cloudy
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 49%