Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo ArnaldiNextGen Finals Round Robin

NextGen Finals · ATP · Round Robin
#31ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
3 — 2
Sets
Monday, 7 November 2022
hard
#35ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Nakashima B.
2-4 4-3 4-3 3-4 4-2
Arnaldi M.
Nakashima B.
249473443
Arnaldi M.
437344722

Brandon Nakashima defeated Matteo Arnaldi 2-4 4-3 4-3 3-4 4-2 in the NextGen Finals round robin on hard. The result followed the form book — Brandon Nakashima came in ranked #31, defending last year's semi-final. Brandon Nakashima extended the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-05Indian Wells MastersR32hardBrandon Nakashima6-2 6-4
2025-02-10Delray BeachQFhardMatteo Arnaldi7-6(2) 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Nakashima B.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Nakashima B.Arnaldi M.
61
Serve
23
23
Return
22

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
75%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
62%
Return points won·Even
35%
37%
Break points saved·Even
66%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
8.5
5.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.2
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (199 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
56
78
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Dominant
13
51
Deciding sets·Clear edge
64
86
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
89
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.1+56 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Hard Elo 1732
6.0Overall Elo 1839
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1830
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.6
Surface form
6.4
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.0
Minutes 14d
5.8
0.0
3-set count
4.0
7.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
8.5
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
86
95

Nakashima B.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Arnaldi M.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast