Carlos Alcaraz vs Pablo Carreno BustaBasel Quarter-final

Basel · ATP · Quarter-final
#2ATP
2162ELO
2088Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 24 October 2022
hard
#71ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Alcaraz C.
6-3 6-4
Carreno Busta P.
Alcaraz C.
662
Carreno Busta P.
340

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 6-3 6-4 in the Basel quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Carlos Alcaraz came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Carlos Alcaraz extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-04-18BarcelonaFclayCarlos Alcaraz6-3 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Alcaraz C.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Serve advantage — Alcaraz C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Alcaraz C.Carreno Busta P.
74
Serve
21
95
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
57%
53%
Service points won·Even
68%
64%
Return points won·Even
42%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.2
3.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 183). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
98
78
Break points saved·Even
100
97
Break points won·Dominant
99
61
Deciding sets·Clear edge
100
80
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
100
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
10.0+344 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Hard Elo 1744
10.0Overall Elo 2162
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1801
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.3
Surface form
5.6
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
5.6
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
89

Carreno Busta P.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast