Elena Rybakina vs Madison KeysOstrava Round of 32

Ostrava · WTA · Round of 32
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 3 October 2022
hard
#23WTA
1987ELO
1920Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
Rybakina E.
5-7 6-3 6-3
Keys M.
Rybakina E.
5662
Keys M.
7331

Elena Rybakina defeated Madison Keys 5-7 6-3 6-3 in the Ostrava round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Elena Rybakina came in ranked #2, defending last year's quarter-final. Elena Rybakina narrowed the head-to-head to 3–3.

Key context

Head to head

23
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-07CincinnatiR16hardElena Rybakina6-7(3) 6-4 6-2
2025-01-13Australian OpenR16hardMadison Keys6-3 1-6 6-3
2024-03-18MiamiR16hardElena Rybakina6-3 7-5
2022-08-15CincinnatiQFhardMadison Keys6-2 6-4
2022-05-23Roland GarrosR32clayMadison Keys3-6 6-1 7-6(3)

Serve vs return

This season
Rybakina E.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Keys M.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rybakina E.Keys M.
100
Serve
36
34
Return
29

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
47%
Service points won·Even
63%
61%
Return points won·Even
43%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.9
4.1
Double faults / match·Even
2.9
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
92
94
Break points saved·Even
98
96
Break points won·Slight edge
96
90
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Even
93
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.9+190 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.1Hard Elo 1920
7.8Overall Elo 2122
ELO gap
2.2Overall Elo 1987
0.0
H2H
10.0
6.7
Surface form
5.1
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
9.2
Minutes 14d
9.2
9.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
7.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
93
87

Rybakina E.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Keys M.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast