Dayana Yastremska vs Jasmine PaoliniLyon Quarter-final

Lyon · WTA · Quarter-final
#67WTA
1792ELO
1733Hard ELO
$505kYTD
$6.5MCAREER
26 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 28 February 2022
hard
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
Yastremska D.
6-4 7-6
Paolini J.
Yastremska D.
6772
Paolini J.
4630

Dayana Yastremska defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-4 7-6 in the Lyon quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jasmine Paolini came in ranked #17, leading the head-to-head 6–0. Dayana Yastremska claimed a first win over Jasmine Paolini in seven meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 6–1.

Key context

Head to head

06
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-25Roland GarrosR128clayJasmine Paolini7-5 6-3
2023-07-17PalermoR16clayJasmine Paolini2-6 6-4 6-2
2022-10-10Cluj NapocaR16hardJasmine Paolini6-4 6-1
2021-11-08LinzR32hardJasmine Paolini6-4 3-6 6-2
2021-10-25CourmayeurQFhardJasmine Paolini6-4 7-6(4)
2021-09-13PortorozR32hardJasmine Paolini7-6(5) 4-1 RET

Serve vs return

This season
Yastremska D.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Paolini J.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Yastremska D.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Yastremska D.Paolini J.
11
Serve
31
25
Return
55

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
49%
Service points won·Even
56%
57%
Return points won·Even
44%
45%
Break points saved·Even
56%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.8
1.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.6
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
77
89
Break points saved·Even
89
87
Break points won·Slight edge
92
99
Deciding sets·Dominant
63
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
98
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.0Hard Elo 1733
Surface ELO
7.0+140 Hard Elo edge
3.1Overall Elo 1792
ELO gap
6.9Overall Elo 1905
0.0
H2H
10.0
4.3
Surface form
4.1
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
6.9
Minutes 14d
8.8
7.0
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
90
72

Yastremska D.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Paolini J.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
8°CClear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 73%