Marin Cilic vs Tommy Paul — Moscow Round of 16

Moscow · ATP · Round of 16
Marin Cilic
CRO6
Marin Cilic
#88ATP
1800ELO
1762Hard ELO
$776kYTD
$33MCAREER
37 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLLLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 18 October 2021
hard
Tommy Paul
USA
Tommy Paul
#24ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Cilic M.
7-5 6-3
Paul T.
Cilic M.
762
Paul T.
530

Marin Cilic defeated Tommy Paul 7-5 6-3 in the Moscow round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Tommy Paul came in ranked #24. Marin Cilic extended the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Marin Cilic closed it out in two sets, 7–5 6–3.

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-08-08Canada MastersR16hardTommy Paul6-4 6-2
2022-01-10Adelaide 2QFhardMarin Cilic6-4 2-6 6-3
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Cilic M.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Cilic M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Cilic M.Paul T.
57
Serve
71
10
Return
54

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Cilic M.Paul T.
1st serve in·Even
58%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
78%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
54%
Service points won·Even
66%
65%
Return points won·Even
36%
39%
Break points saved·Even
66%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
10.6
6.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.4
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (191 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Cilic M.Paul T.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
76
93
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Dominant
41
87
Deciding sets·Even
94
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
87
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Cilic M.
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 56 days (−0.7)
Paul T.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.7Hard Elo 1762
Surface ELO
6.3+120 Hard Elo edge
3.6Overall Elo 1800
ELO gap
6.4Overall Elo 1949
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.4
Surface form
6.5
0.0
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
5.7
3-set count
4.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Cilic M.Paul T.
Freshness·Slight edge
98
88

Cilic M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Paul T.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Final
Karatsev A.[2]
Cilic M.[6]
6-26-4
Semi-finals
Karatsev A.[2]
Khachanov K.[3]
7-676-1
Cilic M.[6]
Berankis R.
6-36-4
Quarter-finals
Berankis R.
Mannarino A.
6-27-61
Karatsev A.[2]
Simon G.
6-46-3
Cilic M.[6]
Martinez P.
6-16-2
Khachanov K.[3]
Millman J.
7-57-64
R16
Karatsev A.[2]
Gerasimov E.
6-46-3
Simon G.
Mcdonald M.
6-36-2
Khachanov K.[3]
Duckworth J.
3-66-36-1
Millman J.
Marchenko I.
6-15-76-4
Cilic M.[6]
Paul T.
7-56-3
Martinez P.
Krajinovic F.[4]
6-36-4
Berankis R.
Coria F.
6-26-1
Mannarino A.
Rublev A.[1]
5-77-646-3
R32
Gerasimov E.
Kecmanovic M.
6-31-66-4
Marchenko I.
Bublik A.[5]
6-46-3
Martinez P.
Pella G.
6-20-0
Berankis R.
Donskoy E.
6-16-3
Mcdonald M.
Nishioka Y.
6-36-4
Duckworth J.
Gojo B.
3-67-56-2
Millman J.
Bonzi B.
6-756-46-3
Cilic M.[6]
Dzumhur D.
6-746-16-1
Paul T.
Ymer M.
7-677-5
Coria F.
Kachmazov A.
6-25-76-2
Mannarino A.
Safiullin R.
1-67-666-4
Simon G.
Djere L.[8]
6-737-56-3