Pablo Carreno Busta vs Gael MonfilsMetz Semi-final

Metz · ATP · Semi-final
#65ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 20 September 2021
hard
#325ATP
1803ELO
1784Hard ELO
39 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWLWLL
Carreno Busta P.
7-5 7-6
Monfils G.
Carreno Busta P.
77102
Monfils G.
5680

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Gael Monfils 7-5 7-6 in the Metz semi-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Gael Monfils came in leading the head-to-head 3–2. Pablo Carreno Busta narrowed the head-to-head to 3–3.

Key context

Head to head

23
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2020-10-26ViennaR32hardPablo Carreno Busta6-1 2-0 RET
2016-08-15Cincinnati MastersR64hardGael Monfils6-3 6-4
2016-03-07Indian Wells MastersR64hardGael Monfils7-5 7-6(1)
2015-06-29WimbledonR128grassGael Monfils6-4 6-4 7-5
2014-04-13Monte Carlo MastersR32clayPablo Carreno Busta6-3 7-6(6)

Serve vs return

This season
Carreno Busta P.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Monfils G.

Monfils G.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Carreno Busta P.Monfils G.
21
Serve
26
44
Return
37

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
49%
Service points won·Even
64%
64%
Return points won·Even
38%
37%
Break points saved·Even
61%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.7
8.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.9
4.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (197 vs 171). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
78
89
Break points saved·Even
97
99
Break points won·Clear edge
61
76
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
92
Tiebreaks·Even
95
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 35 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
4.2Hard Elo 1744
Surface ELO
5.8+40 Hard Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1801
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1803
10.0
H2H
0.0
7.1
Surface form
4.9
Fatigue & Travel
8.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
94

Carreno Busta P.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast