Hubert Hurkacz vs Pablo Carreno BustaMetz Final

Metz · ATP · Final
#96ATP
1798ELO
1727Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 20 September 2021
hard
#71ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
34 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Hurkacz H.
7-6 6-3
Carreno Busta P.
Hurkacz H.
7762
Carreno Busta P.
6230

Hubert Hurkacz defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 7-6 6-3 in the Metz final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in ranked #71, leading the head-to-head 2–0. Hubert Hurkacz claimed a first win over Pablo Carreno Busta in three meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-08-08Canada MastersFhardPablo Carreno Busta3-6 6-3 6-3
2021-08-16Cincinnati MastersR16hardPablo Carreno Busta7-6(6) 7-6(3)

Serve vs return

This season
Hurkacz H.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Hurkacz H.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Hurkacz H.Carreno Busta P.
67
Serve
21
0
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
79%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
69%
64%
Return points won·Even
34%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
68%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
14.0
3.7
Double faults / match·Even
1.8
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (199 vs 197). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
78
78
Break points saved·Even
100
97
Break points won·Clear edge
40
61
Deciding sets·Clear edge
94
80
Tiebreaks·Even
97
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 35 days (−0.7)
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
5.2Hard Elo 1727
Surface ELO
4.8+18 Hard Elo edge
5.8Overall Elo 1798
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1801
0.0
H2H
10.0
6.7
Surface form
7.1
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
58
84

Hurkacz H.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 96 games (7d) · Carreno Busta P.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast