Varvara Gracheva vs Marta KostyukChicago 1 Quarter-final

Chicago 1 · WTA · Quarter-final
#88WTA
1810ELO
1763Hard ELO
25 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 23 August 2021
hard
#13WTA
2057ELO
1968Hard ELO
$2.3MYTD
$9.1MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWW
Gracheva V.
6-7 6-3 6-4
Kostyuk M.
Gracheva V.
64662
Kostyuk M.
77341

Varvara Gracheva defeated Marta Kostyuk 6-7 6-3 6-4 in the Chicago 1 quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Marta Kostyuk came in ranked #13, leading the head-to-head 2–0. Varvara Gracheva claimed a first win over Marta Kostyuk in three meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-02-27AustinFhardMarta Kostyuk6-3 7-5
2021-05-31Roland GarrosR32clayMarta Kostyuk6-1 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Gracheva V.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Kostyuk M.

Kostyuk M.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Gracheva V.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Gracheva V.Kostyuk M.
3
Serve
53
27
Return
57

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
44%
Service points won·Even
56%
57%
Return points won·Even
44%
45%
Break points saved·Even
53%
56%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.0
3.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.3
5.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
74
92
Break points saved·Clear edge
76
93
Break points won·Slight edge
87
98
Deciding sets·Slight edge
90
98
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
65
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
3.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 35 days (−0.7)
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 56 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
2.6Hard Elo 1763
Surface ELO
7.4+204 Hard Elo edge
2.2Overall Elo 1810
ELO gap
7.8Overall Elo 2057
5.0
H2H
5.0
2.5
Surface form
4.7
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.0
Surface transition
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
65

Kostyuk M.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 82 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast