Alexei Popyrin vs Tommy PaulMurray River Open Round of 32

Murray River Open · ATP · Round of 32
#103ATP
1741ELO
1681Hard ELO
$563kYTD
$9.7MCAREER
26 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 1 February 2021
hard
#24ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Popyrin A.
6-4 6-3
Paul T.
Popyrin A.
662
Paul T.
430

Alexei Popyrin defeated Tommy Paul 6-4 6-3 in the Murray River Open round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Tommy Paul came in ranked #24, leading the head-to-head 4–0. Alexei Popyrin claimed a first win over Tommy Paul in five meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

Head to head

04
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR16clayTommy Paul6-3 6-3 6-3
2024-06-10s HertogenboschR16grassTommy Paul5-7 6-4 6-3
2021-11-01Paris MastersQ2hardTommy Paul4-6 6-4 6-3
2019-08-05Canada MastersQ1hardTommy Paul6-4 5-7 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Popyrin A.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Popyrin A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Popyrin A.Paul T.
40
Serve
71
11
Return
54

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
54%
Service points won·Even
66%
65%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
39%
Break points saved·Even
66%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
9.7
6.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.0
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
59
93
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Dominant
6
87
Deciding sets·Clear edge
75
98
Tiebreaks·Even
93
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
98
88

Popyrin A.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Paul T.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast

Draw