Pablo Carreno Busta vs Alexander BublikMoscow Quarter-final

Moscow · ATP · Quarter-final
#65ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 17 October 2016
hard
#11ATP
1889ELO
1837Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLL
Carreno Busta P.
6-4 2-6 7-6
Bublik A.
Carreno Busta P.
62772
Bublik A.
46611

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Alexander Bublik 6-4 2-6 7-6 in the Moscow quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alexander Bublik came in ranked #11. Pablo Carreno Busta extended the head-to-head to 4–0.

Key context

Head to head

30
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-08-29US OpenR64hardPablo Carreno Busta4-6 6-4 6-3 7-6(5)
2022-04-11Monte Carlo MastersR32clayPablo Carreno Busta4-6 7-6(3) 4-3 RET
2019-09-23ChengduFhardPablo Carreno Busta6-7(5) 6-4 7-6(3)

Serve vs return

This season
Carreno Busta P.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Bublik A.

Bublik A.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Carreno Busta P.Bublik A.
21
Serve
65
44
Return
25

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
77%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
53%
46%
Service points won·Even
64%
65%
Return points won·Even
38%
35%
Break points saved·Even
61%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.6
11.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.9
5.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (197 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
78
88
Break points saved·Even
97
99
Break points won·Slight edge
61
67
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
99
Tiebreaks·Even
95
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
92
74

Carreno Busta P.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Bublik A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast