Jelena Ostapenko vs Jessica PegulaQuebec City Round of 16

Quebec City · WTA · Round of 16
#29WTA
1855ELO
1794Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 177 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 14 September 2015
hard
#3WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
Ostapenko J.
3-6 6-2 7-6
Pegula J.
Ostapenko J.
36772
Pegula J.
62631

Jelena Ostapenko defeated Jessica Pegula 3-6 6-2 7-6 in the Quebec City round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jessica Pegula came in ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 3–1. Jelena Ostapenko narrowed the head-to-head to 3–2.

Key context

Head to head

13
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-04Indian WellsR32hardJessica Pegula4-6 6-3 6-2
2023-10-02BeijingR16hardJelena Ostapenko6-4 6-2
2023-02-13DohaR16hardJessica Pegula6-2 2-6 7-5
2021-03-01DohaR16hardJessica Pegula6-2 7-5

Serve vs return

This season
Ostapenko J.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Pegula J.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Ostapenko J.

Serve advantage — Pegula J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Ostapenko J.Pegula J.
10
Serve
68
45
Return
73

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
44%
50%
Service points won·Even
57%
61%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
53%
58%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.8
3.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.3
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
88
96
Break points saved·Clear edge
79
96
Break points won·Even
100
99
Deciding sets·Even
96
100
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
87
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
93
79

Ostapenko J.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Pegula J.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast