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Tristan Schoolkate vs Carl Emil Overbeck — Sydney Round of 32

SydneyR32HardTue 17 Nov · 10:00
Tristan Schoolkate(3)ATP #144 · AUS67%
VSClear favourite · Schoolkate T.
Carl Emil OverbeckATP #308 · DEN33%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Schoolkate T.
67%33%

Clear edge for Schoolkate T. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Schoolkate T.7.1/10
Strong advantage
Overbeck C.4.8/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+243 Hard Elo edgeSupports Schoolkate T.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1549Supports Schoolkate T.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Schoolkate T.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 805
Hard ELO1 707
Last 106–4
Age25
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.6M2026 $322K
ELO1 673
Hard ELO1 610
Last 104–6
Age25
Height193 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $57K2026 $25K

Tristan Schoolkate faces Carl Emil Overbeck in the Sydney round of 32 on hard. Tristan Schoolkate holds the paper edge — ranked #144, a roughly 240-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Schoolkate T.Overbeck C.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate55% (38–31)68% (30–14) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1805 (ahead)1673
Hard-court ELO1707 (ahead)1610
Serve vs returnLast 64 vs 35 matches
1st-serve points won75% (ahead)71%
Return points won35%39% (ahead)
Aces / match8.8 (ahead)6.0
ClutchLast 64 vs 35 matches
Break points saved61% (ahead)57%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard · medium-fast
Forecast18°C · Drizzle
Wind14 km/h
Humidity69%

Court pace medium-fast: rewards aggression.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Schoolkate T.Overbeck C.
5 — fresherDays since last match3
1 — fresherMatches · 7 days2
34 — fresherGames · 7 days61
1 — fresherMatches · 14 days4
34 — fresherGames · 14 days103
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Tristan Schoolkate vs Carl Emil Overbeck — Sydney Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-17/overbeck-vs-schoolkate-sydney-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 17 November 2026).