Omar Jasika vs Alex Bolt | Sydney Round of 32

UMPIRY

SydneyR32HardTue 17 Nov · 10:00

Omar JasikaATP #301 · AUS57%

VSToss-up

Alex Bolt(4)ATP #171 · AUS43%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

57%43%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Jasika O.5.3/10

Clear underdog

Bolt A.7.2/10

Strong advantage

Why

Surface+269 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Bolt A.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1588Against the prediction · Bolt A.

Head-to-headTrails 3–5 on hardAgainst the prediction · Bolt A.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysBoth players

ELO1 705

Hard ELO1 673

Last 107–3

Age29

Height183 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $807K2026 $50K

ELO1 744

Hard ELO1 650

Last 106–4

Age33

Height183 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $2.2M2026 $175K

Omar Jasika faces Alex Bolt in the Sydney round of 32 on hard. Alex Bolt is the paper favourite — ranked #171, a roughly 270-point hard Elo advantage — but Omar Jasika has won 6 of their 11 previous meetings. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Omar Jasika 179 games in 14 days, Alex Bolt 76.
Under pressure: Alex Bolt has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 32 vs Omar Jasika's 0).
Head-to-head: Omar Jasika leads the head-to-head 6–5, 5–3 on hard. Last met at Hangzhou 2026.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

11 meetings · Jasika O. leads 6–5

Hard: Jasika O. leads 5–3 · Clay: level 1–1 · Grass: Bolt A. leads 1–0

Bolt A.September 2026HangzhouHard6-4 6-3
Bolt A.February 2026Brisbane 2 CHHard6-2 4-1
Bolt A.September 2025Jingshan CHHard4-6 6-4 6-1
Jasika O.January 2024Burnie CHHard6-2 6-7 6-3
Jasika O.September 2023Guangzhou CHHard5-7 6-2 7-6

Evidence

Jasika O.Bolt A.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss7–36–4

Season win rate61% (47–30)51% (25–24)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17051744

Hard-court ELO16731650

Serve vs returnLast 61 vs 46 matches

1st-serve points won67%72%

Return points won39%34%

Aces / match1.67.4

ClutchLast 61 vs 46 matches

Break points saved61%64%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local

SurfaceHard · medium-fast

Forecast18°C · Drizzle

Wind14 km/h

Humidity69%

Court pace medium-fast: rewards aggression.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Jasika O.Bolt A.

4Days since last match2

2Matches · 7 days3

43Games · 7 days76

7Matches · 14 days3

179Games · 14 days76

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Omar Jasika vs Alex Bolt — Sydney Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-17/bolt-vs-jasika-sydney-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 17 November 2026).