UMPIRY
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Oliver Tarvet vs Karl Poling — Champaign Round of 32

ChampaignR32HardMon 16 Nov · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Tarvet O.
91%9%

Clear edge for Tarvet O. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 11 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Tarvet O.6.9/10
Slight advantage
Poling K.5.0/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+140 Hard Elo edgeSupports Tarvet O.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1490Supports Tarvet O.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
CountryWon 64% in USA (25)Supports Tarvet O.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Tarvet O.
ELO1 814
Hard ELO1 703
Last 109–1
Age23
EarningsCareer $294K2026 $128K
ELO1 577
Hard ELO1 545
Last 103–7
Age27
EarningsCareer $90K2026 $27K

Oliver Tarvet faces Karl Poling in the Champaign round of 32 on hard. Oliver Tarvet holds the paper edge — ranked #253, a roughly 140-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Tarvet O.Poling K.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss9–1 (ahead)3–7
Season win rate81% (35–8) (ahead)48% (25–27)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1814 (ahead)1577
Hard-court ELO1703 (ahead)1545
Serve vs returnLast 35 vs 49 matches
1st-serve points won76% (ahead)65%
Return points won41% (ahead)39%
Aces / match7.2 (ahead)2.0
ClutchLast 35 vs 49 matches
Break points saved68% (ahead)58%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard · medium-fast
Forecast7°C · Clear
Wind11 km/h
Humidity63%

Court pace medium-fast: rewards aggression.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Tarvet O.Poling K.
5Days since last match7 — fresher
1Matches · 7 days1
20 — fresherGames · 7 days29
1 — fresherMatches · 14 days2
20 — fresherGames · 14 days60
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Oliver Tarvet vs Karl Poling — Champaign Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-16/poling-vs-tarvet-champaign-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 16 November 2026).