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Evan Zhu vs Dominik Palan — Sydney Qualifying Round of 16

SydneyQ16QualifyingHardMon 16 Nov · 10:00
Evan ZhuATP #461 · USA61%
VSSlight edge · Zhu E.
Dominik PalanATP #608 · CZE39%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Zhu E.
61%39%

Zhu E. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Zhu E.5.7/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Palan D.5.7/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form4 of last 10 on hardAgainst the prediction · Palan D.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysBoth players
ELO1 617
Hard ELO1 587
Last 104–6
Age28
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $184K2026 $22K
ELO1 583
Hard ELO1 563
Last 104–6
Age26
Height191 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $147K2026 $19K

Evan Zhu faces Dominik Palan in the Sydney qualifying round of 16 on hard. Evan Zhu holds the paper edge — ranked #461. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Freshness: Evan Zhu comes in with 0 days of rest and 61 games in 14d, vs Dominik Palan's 0 and 96.
  • Last match: Evan Zhu dropped just 6 games past Daniel Jovanovski.
  • Surface form: Both 4 of 10 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Zhu E.Palan D.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–64–6
Season win rate59% (32–22) (ahead)39% (14–22)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1617 (ahead)1583
Hard-court ELO1587 (ahead)1563
Serve vs returnLast 45 vs 31 matches
1st-serve points won67%73% (ahead)
Return points won39% (ahead)33%
Aces / match3.48.4 (ahead)
ClutchLast 45 vs 31 matches
Break points saved63% (ahead)61%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard · medium-fast
Forecast17°C · Drizzle
Wind22 km/h
Humidity76%

Court pace medium-fast: rewards aggression.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Zhu E.Palan D.
0Days since last match0
2 — fresherMatches · 7 days3
44 — fresherGames · 7 days77
4Matches · 14 days4
61 — fresherGames · 14 days96
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Evan Zhu vs Dominik Palan — Sydney Qualifying Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-16/palan-vs-zhu-sydney-q16?utm_source=cite (as of 16 November 2026).