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Nicolas Mejia vs Louis Wessels — Drummondville Round of 32

DrummondvilleR32HardMon 16 Nov · 11:00
Nicolas Mejia(1)ATP #114 · COL68%
VSClear favourite · Mejia N.
Louis WesselsATP #420 · GER32%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Mejia N.
68%32%

Clear edge for Mejia N. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Mejia N.5.7/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Wessels L.5.6/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form6 of last 10 on hardAgainst the prediction · Wessels L.
Recent runLost last 4Informative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headFirst meeting on hardBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 794
Hard ELO1 623
Last 104–6
Age26
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $776K2026 $391K
ELO1 637
Hard ELO1 535
Last 103–7
Age28
Height198 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $268K2026 $17K

Nicolas Mejia faces Louis Wessels in the Drummondville round of 32 on hard. Nicolas Mejia holds the paper edge — ranked #114, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Louis Wessels carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
  • Head-to-head: Nicolas Mejia leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at San Luis Potosi CH 2024.
  • Surface form: Both 1 of 4 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Mejia N. leads 1–0
10

Evidence

Mejia N.Wessels L.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–6 (ahead)3–7
Season win rate58% (37–27)62% (28–17) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1794 (ahead)1637
Hard-court ELO1623 (ahead)1535
Serve vs returnLast 58 vs 44 matches
1st-serve points won70%71% (ahead)
Return points won38%39% (ahead)
Aces / match5.1 (ahead)4.2
ClutchLast 58 vs 44 matches
Break points saved63% (ahead)61%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast4°C · Overcast
Wind13 km/h
Humidity70%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Nicolas Mejia vs Louis Wessels — Drummondville Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-16/mejia-vs-wessels-drummondville-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 16 November 2026).