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Aidan Mchugh vs Jeremy Zhang — Champaign Round of 32

ChampaignR32HardMon 16 Nov · 10:00
Aidan MchughATP #545 · GBR76%
VSClear favourite · Mchugh A.
Jeremy ZhangAUS24%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Mchugh A.
76%24%

Clear edge for Mchugh A. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Mchugh A.5.9/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Zhang J.5.5/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form5 of last 10 on hardInformative
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Mchugh A.
CountryWon 63% in USA (112)Informative
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 668
Hard ELO1 653
Last 104–6
Age26
Height180 cm
ELO1 539
Hard ELO1 541
Last 104–6
Age21
Height173 cm

Aidan Mchugh faces Jeremy Zhang in the Champaign round of 32 on hard. Aidan Mchugh holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 1–0. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Aidan Mchugh carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Head-to-head: Aidan Mchugh leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Champaign CH 2025.
  • Surface form: Both 4 of 9 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Mchugh A. leads 1–0
10

Evidence

Mchugh A.Zhang J.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–64–6
Season win rate64% (14–8) (ahead)33% (2–4)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1668 (ahead)1539
Hard-court ELO1653 (ahead)1541
Serve vs returnLast 21 vs 2 matches
1st-serve points won70% (ahead)57%
Return points won39%42% (ahead)
Aces / match4.0 (ahead)0.0
ClutchLast 21 vs 2 matches
Break points saved68% (ahead)33%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard · medium-fast
Forecast7°C · Clear
Wind11 km/h
Humidity63%

Court pace medium-fast: rewards aggression.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Aidan Mchugh vs Jeremy Zhang — Champaign Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-16/mchugh-vs-zhang-champaign-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 16 November 2026).