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Ryuki Matsuda vs Fajing Sun — Kobe Round of 32

KobeR32HardMon 16 Nov · 11:00
Ryuki MatsudaATP #661 · JPN39%
VSSlight edge · Sun F.
Fajing SunATP #297 · CHN61%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Sun F.
39%61%

Sun F. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Matsuda R.5.8/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Sun F.6.1/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form5 of last 10 on hardAgainst the prediction · Matsuda R.
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Sun F.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Matsuda R.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 590
Hard ELO1 575
Last 105–5
Age26
Height157 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $111K2026 $10K
ELO1 681
Hard ELO1 642
Last 105–5
Age30
Height178 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $530K2026 $69K

Ryuki Matsuda faces Fajing Sun in the Kobe round of 32 on hard. Fajing Sun holds the paper edge — ranked #297, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Head-to-head: Fajing Sun leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Shenzhen Longhua CH 2024.
  • Fatigue load: Fajing Sun carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Both 5 of 10 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Sun F. leads 1–0
01

Evidence

Matsuda R.Sun F.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–55–5
Season win rate49% (23–24)51% (32–31) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15901681 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15751642 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 35 vs 62 matches
1st-serve points won66%70% (ahead)
Return points won39% (ahead)37%
Aces / match2.33.6 (ahead)
ClutchLast 35 vs 62 matches
Break points saved58%63% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceHard · medium-fast
Forecast17°C · Partly cloudy
Wind12 km/h
Humidity59%

Court pace medium-fast: rewards aggression.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Matsuda R.Sun F.
5 — fresherDays since last match4
3Matches · 7 days2 — fresher
57Games · 7 days47 — fresher
3Matches · 14 days2 — fresher
57Games · 14 days47 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Ryuki Matsuda vs Fajing Sun — Kobe Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-16/matsuda-vs-sun-kobe-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 16 November 2026).