UMPIRY
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Adam Jilly vs Spencer Johnson — Champaign Round of 32

ChampaignR32HardMon 16 Nov · 10:00
Adam JillyHUN33%
VSClear favourite · Johnson S.
Spencer JohnsonATP #426 · USA67%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Johnson S.
33%67%

Clear edge for Johnson S. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Jilly A.5.6/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Johnson S.5.8/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form4 of last 10 on hardInformative
CountryWon 71% in USA (69)Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 538
Hard ELO1 511
Last 104–6
Age19
ELO1 623
Hard ELO1 601
Last 104–6
Age23

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Jilly A.Johnson S.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–64–6
Season win rate44% (4–5)72% (26–10) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15381623 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15111601 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 6 vs 27 matches
1st-serve points won72%75% (ahead)
Return points won42% (ahead)38%
Aces / match4.87.8 (ahead)
ClutchLast 6 vs 27 matches
Break points saved64% (ahead)63%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard · medium-fast
Forecast7°C · Clear
Wind11 km/h
Humidity63%

Court pace medium-fast: rewards aggression.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Adam Jilly vs Spencer Johnson — Champaign Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-16/jilly-vs-johnson-champaign-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 16 November 2026).